A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-17.5.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22319.20—High—22432.25—Low—22054.55--Close-22403.85 on 16.5.2024.

Support: 22348.05/22305.25/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21883/21875/21860/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.45/21137.20.

Resistance:22526.60/22554.68/22568.40/22678.85/22730/22775.70/22783.35/22794.70

It opened on a positive note and exhibited huge volatility and had both side wild swings during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 203.30 points. It is still into correction mode for its earlier rise, but it exhibited good strength today as it moved above its short term moving average range of 22304—22330 and it was already above the other key points of 22288.01(figure may change)----22126.80 & 22051. Please note that if it holds the range of 22330---22288 the on-going rally can extend further and in worst case holding the range of 22126.60—22051 will keep the chances of continuation of the up move alive.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.

2. The short range for it now is between 22794.70---22305.25 and the long range is between 22794.70----21777.65.

3. It is well above its critical points of 21801.45---21777.65---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.

4. It is above its pullback threshold point of 22051(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend and the possible upside target or resistance points could be at -22423---22526.60---22565---22600. Please note that if it moves above 22600 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22794.70 or may go beyond it also.

5. It moved above all its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart today and the important range of averages is between 22330---22308---22304 (figures will change every day) for the day, sustained close above this range may provide good strength and an impetus for the continuation of the up move. Similarly break below the range will weaken it.

6. Moving down the possible good bounce back support point could be at 22308---22288.01---22193----22126.80---22051----22018---21981---21860----21777.65----21710.20(figures may change), break below 22288.01 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise, break below 22126.80 could be a warning sign and sustained break below 22051 may end the on-going rally, sustained break below 21981 can pull it down to 21777.65 & 21710.20 levels and finally sustained break below these points could be a warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 21777.65 & 21710.20 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark points. So be watchful.

6. It is above its important key point of 22126.80.

7. It has made short higher top and bottom on the line chart now.

8. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is still into the correction mode for its earlier rise.

2. It is way below its up momentum threshold point of 22526.60.

4. It is below some of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

5. It has broken its earlier major bottom on the line and bar chart.

6. Technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to much lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

7. Huge volatility is there in the market, which is not a good sign for a steady market and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

OVERALL VIEW: -- The overall technical setup has improved a bit but still has a weak tinge, however if it holds the range of 22330---22288 on the closing basis the up move can continue with intermittent correction. Since it is in correction mode but the pullback mode is also on therefore both side trades can be attempted depending on the price action. But please note that long trade amid volatility and in a corrective market could be a risky affair, so be alert and watchful in your trades. The long term trend is still up, but the short term bias is negative as of now.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22330---22288 or lower but with a strict stop loss of 22190 or if it moves above 22440 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22380. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 22127---22060 with a stop loss of 21970. Please note that long trade below 22200 could be a risky affair for the day.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22590--- 22630 with a stop loss of 22700. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com