2 2 2
CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48786.70--High—49022.60--Low—48401.55---Close—48501.35
on 29.5.2024.
Support:48292.25/48203.45/48161.25/47737.20/47313.35/47279.80/46919.70/46579.05/46529.05/45828.80.
Resistance:48636.45/49057.80/49173.36/49262/49396.75/49446.69/49676/49732/49883/49974.75.
It opened with a huge down gap and then had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 640.80
points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to
fill the gap in the next 3-4 days
which is technically possible then it can come up to 49044, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then
the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being but eventually it
will fill the gap some day. It was already in the correction mode for its
earlier rise and today it slipped into correction mode for its very recent rise
as it closed well below its threshold point of 49050.33, furthermore it also closed below its one of the most
critical point of 48636.45 both are
the weak sign and if it sustain below these points it may continue to move down.
However the last important support range exist between 48478---48389---48372---48317----48292---48203, if it manages to
hold this range on the closing basis then it could still bounce back, but sustained
break below this range can witness an accelerated fall.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend as of now.
2. The short
range for it now is between 49974.75---47737.20 and the long range is
between 49974.75----47737.20----46913----46579.05.
3. It is above
its most critical points of 48203.45 & 48292.25 but it closed below 48636.45 today,
please note
that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum
going in the year 2024.
4. It is above
its all short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart and the
important average range is between 48478---48389---48372---48317---48292---28203(figures
will change every day), and if it
sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move may continue, else it
may move down further
5. It is
above its medium term moving averages.
6. It is
above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25(figure may change) and if
it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend further and
the possible upside target or resistance points could be at 48636.45—48655---48855---49050.33---49173.36---49377---49397---49447---49676---49732---49883---49974.75,
if it moves above 48636.45 and sustain on the closing basis then
only it will get back on the up momentum track.
7. Moving
down the possible good bounce back point could be at 48336---48292.25---48276---48203.45---48126---48016---47876---47737.20---47689.25----47621----47524----47258---47157----46983.25---46579.05(figure
may change), It is already into correction mode for its earlier rise and
slipped into correction mode for its recent rise, break below 48292.25 &
48203.45 will be an warning sign, break below 47689.25 may end the
on- going up move, sustained break below 47524 & 47258 can pull it
down to 46983 &46579.05 sustained
break below 47157 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained
break below 46579.05 could be a warning sign and can drag it down to
devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction
more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 47157---46983
&46579.05 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points
as of now or make or break point or benchmark points.
8. It still
has higher top and bottom on the line chart.
9. Three out of five
important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is into
correction mode for its earlier rise and today it slipped into correction mode
for its recent rise and it will get out of all the correction mode, if it moves
above 49050.33---49173.36 & 49446.69 and sustain on the closing
basis.
2. The price
action has been mixed for the last few days and today it was negative.
3. Some
important technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts
and pointing that it could head downs in coming days/weeks and months.
4. Volatility
can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady
market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
OVERALL VIEW: -- Today’s
move has given a jolt to its technical setup as it closed below its two
important points of 49050.33 &48636.45 and if it remains below these
points fall may continue, however even now if it manages to hold the range of 48478---48389---48372---48317----48292---48203, on the closing basis then it could still
bounce back and may resume the up move again, else it may witness an accelerated
fall. Since it is in correction mode and the pullback mode is also on therefore
both side trades can be attempted depending on the price action. But please
note that both side trades amid volatility and in a corrective market could be
a risky affair, so be alert and watchful in your trades. The long term trend is
up, the short term bias is weak now. Be alert in long trade below 48636.45
and avoid long trade below 48203.45 for sure.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near
or within the range of 48346----48203 with a stop loss of 48100
or can buy if it moves above 48657 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 48380.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48900 —49000 with
a stop loss of 49130 or can sell below 48400 with a stop loss of 48660.
It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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