A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-21.5.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22515.85—High—22520.25—Low—22470.05--Close-22502 on 18.5.2024.

Support: 22348.05/22305.25/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21883/21875/21860/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.45/21137.20.

Resistance:22526.60/22554.68/22568.40/22678.85/22730/22775.70/22783.35/22794.70

It opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 35.90 points. It is still into correction mode for its earlier rise, but it has been exhibiting good strength in the last few days, therefore it is likely to continue the up move with intermittent correction in coming days provided it holds its important range of 22371---22300(range may change every day) and in worst case scenario if it holds the range of 22126.60—22051 will keep the chances of up move alive.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.

2. The short range for it now is between 22794.70---22305.25 and the long range is between 22794.70----21777.65.

3. It is well above its critical points of 21801.45---21777.65---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.

4. It is above its pullback threshold point of 22051(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend and the possible upside target or resistance points could be at 22526.60---22565---22600. Please note that if it moves above 22600 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22794.70 or may go beyond it also.

5. It moved above all its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart today and the important range of averages is between 22371---22335---22303 (figures will change every day) for the day, sustained close above this range may provide good strength and an impetus for the continuation of the up move. Similarly break below the range will weaken it.

6. Moving down the possible good bounce back support point could be at 22355.27---22308----22193----22126.80---22051----22018---21981---21860----21777.65----21710.20(figures may change), break below 22355.27 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise, break below 22126.80 could be a warning sign and sustained break below 22051 may end the on-going rally, sustained break below 21981 can pull it down to 21777.65 & 21710.20 levels and finally sustained break below these points could be a warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 21777.65 & 21710.20 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark points. So be watchful.

6. It is well above its important key point of 22126.80.

7. It has made short higher top and bottom on the line chart now.

8. The price action has been positive for the last few days.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is into deep correction mode now for its earlier rise and it will get out of it, if it moves above 22554.68 & 22679.18 and sustain on the closing basis.

2. It is below its up momentum threshold point of 22526.60.

3. Technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to much lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

OVERALL VIEW: -- The overall technical setup has improved and if it holds the range of 22371---22300 on the closing basis then the up move can continue with intermittent correction. Since it is in correction mode but the pullback mode is also on therefore both side trades can be attempted depending on the price action. But please note that both side trades amid volatility and in a corrective market could be a risky affair, so be alert and watchful in your trades. The long term trend is still up, but the short term bias is slightly negative as of now.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22400---22371 with a stop loss of 22300 or if it moves above 22527 with a stop loss of 22460.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22590--- 22640 with a stop loss of 22700 or can sell below 22470 with a stop loss of 22530. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com