A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-25.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22421.55-High—22476.45—Low—22384--Close-22402.40 on 24.4.2024.

Support: 22297.50/22234.35/ 22180.70/22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 34.40 points. It continued the up move for the 4th day in a row is a good sign but the intensity has slowed down a bit, so watch out. It is above its pullback threshold point of 22013.19, which is positive sign and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move can extend, else it may start to move down again. Please note that the gap it created on 22.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 2-3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can go down to 22179.55, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 & daily gap of 22503.75(15.4.2024) is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22524.24----22526.60----22540.16-----22576.09-------22619----22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track and finally sustained close above 22576.09 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 22395----22389---22369---22399-----22318----22277---22158.91-----22126.80---22013.19----21962---21923----21913----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into deep correction mode, sustained break below the range of  22369---22318 will weaken it, break below 22126.80 will be an alert sign but if it manages to hold 22013.19(pullback threshold point) on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, it has a very strong support in the range of 21962---21923 therefore it is expected to bounce back from this range but sustained break below the range will open up the possibility to drag it down to 21710.20 levels or much below, break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial , key and last important support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.

It is important to mention here that despite 4 days rise all the five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart, which is weak sign and indicates further down move may be ahead therefore it seems that it may head down after the on-going pullback rally is over. Furthermore three important indicators on the weekly and one indicator on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. But the other parameter such as moving average placement and price action has improved in the last four days and if it continues to improve then the up move may continue. But the indicators weakness on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is concerning, therefore due caution is important and necessary to ride the rise because the on-going rally may end abruptly also, which may please be kept in mind.. It is in the long-term uptrend; but into short correction mode, but pullback mode is also on therefore both side trades can be tried depending on price action.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE ON-GOING UP MOVE MAY EXHAUST AT ANY OF THESE POINTS 22526.60----22540.16----22576.09 BUT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 22576.09 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT CAN RETEST ITS ALL-TIME HIGH OF 22775.70 OR MAY GO BEYOND IT ALSO. SIMILARLY AS LONG AS IT HOLDS 22013.19 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE AND BREAK BELOW IT CAN DRAG IT DOWN. IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE BELOW 22337 FOR THE DAY.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds the range of 22384----22369 for some time with a stop loss of 22300. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22475--- 22505 with a stop loss of 22580 or sell below 22300 with a stop loss of 22380 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com