A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—25.4.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48120.90--High—48246.20-Low—48028.70---Close—48189 on 24.4.2024.

Support: 48166.15/48161.25/47795/47588/47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 48203.45/48219.95//48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49057.80/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 218.55 points. It continued the up move for the 4th day in a row is a good sign. It is also above its pullback threshold point of 47163.94, which is a positive sign and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move can extend, else it may start to move down again. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months, so be alert and watchful. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday( gap to be filled 48477.55 ), which please note.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must sustain above these points on the closing basis. Please note that it is still below all these points now, which is a very weak sign and it is inching towards it and to get back on the strong up momentum track again it has to bounce back above these points and sustain on the closing basis, else it may drift down eventually.   

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 48203.45----48292.25----48295.45-----48472.51-----48561.73------48636.45-----48637.89-----48785-------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. It is into corrective mode now. Please note that sustained close above 48203.45 & 48292.25 will provide it good strength for the continuation of the up move and sustained close above 48636.45 & 48637.89 will put it back on the strong up momentum track and it will get out of all corrective mode and then in all likelihood it could retest its all-time high of 49057.40 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 48111—47965.10----47944----47818.23----47776----47742----47525.78---47491----47481.35-----47471.91----47416.73---47279.80---47163.94---47062----47010.80---46886.90----46591-----46529.05---46544---46507.15---46475-----46458---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----45397---44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into correction mode for its recent rise, break below the range of 47944----47742 will weaken the on-going up move, but as long as it holds 47163.94(pullback threshold point) on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, sustained break below 46544 will threaten the long term uptrend, sustained break below 46475 will indicate that it could drag it down to 45828.80 levels , sustained break below 46369.50 & 46310.40 may trigger fresh fall, sustained break below 45828.80 will indicate that the correction could be much deeper and can last longer and finally  break below 45397 may jeopardize the long term uptrend and it could head for bigger fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken it further, which may please be noted. Please note that the most crucial, key and last important support point is 45828.80 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.   

It is important to mention here that despite last four days rise all the five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart, which is a weak sign and indicates further down move may be ahead therefore it seems that it may head down after the on-going pullback rally is over. Furthermore two important indicators on the weekly and monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. But the other parameter such as moving average placement and price action has improved in the last four days and if it continues to improve then the up move may continue. But indicators weakness on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is very concerning, therefore due caution and alert is important and necessary to ride the rise, because the on-going rally may end abruptly also, which may please be kept in mind. It is in the long-term uptrend; but into short correction mode, but pullback mode is on therefore both side trades can be tried depending on price action but one has to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: --THE ON-GOING UP MOVE MAY EXHAUST AT ANY OF THESE POINTS 48203.45----48295.25--48473---48562—48636 BUT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 48636 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT CAN RETEST ITS ALL-TIME HIGH OF 49057.40 OR MAY GO BEYOND IT ALSO. SIMILARLY AS LONG AS IT HOLDS 47163.94 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE AND BREAK BELOW IT CAN DRAG IT DOWN. TODAY'S PRICE MOVEMENT WAS SLIGHTLY DICEY THEREFORE IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE BELOW 47900 FOR THE DAY.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 47950 but not below it with a stop loss of 47650 or can try long trade if it holds 48161.25 for some time with a stop loss of 48000.Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48430—48480 with a stop loss of 48650. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.