CNX-NIFTY
Open-22125.30-High—22213.75—Low—22079.45--Close-22147.90
on 16.4.2024.
Support: 22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.
Resistance: 22180.70/22234.35/22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.
(Bold
and underlined figures are most important)
It opened with a down gap for the 2nd
day in a row and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally
ended the day with a loss of 124.60 points. The last three
days fall was sharp and it shook the technical setup, therefore further fall
looks very much likely.. Please note that the gap it created today and on 15.4.2024
is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the 1st
gap in next 3—4 trading sessions and 2nd gap in 4-5
trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can move up to 22259.55
& 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time
then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but
eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The
volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and
eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down
move is on. Please note that other parameters has also weakened further,
therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in the next 1-2
trading sessions and move above some critical levels then it may continue to
slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat
for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note
that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet
to be filled), which please note.
Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22224.35-----22243.77----22297.50----22303.80---22363.12-----22389-----22395----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568----22619-----22636.45---22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 22243.77 will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend, sustained close above 22395 will provide it some strength, sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track, it will get out of all corrective mode above 22664.33 and finally sustained close above 22636.45 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also.
Similarly moving down from here the broad important
support points could be at 22126.80----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures
may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support
table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points.
It has slipped into deep short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed
well below its critical and threshold points of 22664.33---22524.24 &
22389, sustained break below 22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range
of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize
the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial support
point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then
the correction could be deep & painful
time and value-wise both.
It is important to mention here that all the
five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily
chart, which is huge weak sign and indicates further down move is ahead. Furthermore
three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly
chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months
and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as
moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some
of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart
after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the line and bar chart after
a long time, therefore all together it is indicating extreme weakness at this point of
time and pointing that down move may continue in coming days with in between
short relief rallies. However, if it stages a sharp bounce back in a shortest
possible time and move above some of its important points as mentioned above
then the chances of up could be there, else down move may continue. It is in
the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore
both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price
action but they have to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of
time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of
correction completion emerges
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- AFTER 3 DAYS OF SHARP FALL CHANCE OF AN UP RALLY COULD BE THERE ON
18.4.2024 BUT IF IT OPENS WITH A DOWN GAP THAT IS BELOW 22079.45 THEN IT IS
VERY MUCH LIKELY TO HAVE A PULLBACK UP MOVE. BUT FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS
SUGGESTED TO TRY LONG TRADE ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 22243.77(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND
SUSTAIN ELSE AVOID.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW.
TRADING TIPS: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within
the range of 21960---21925 and not below it with a stop loss of 21850
or if it holds 22126.80 for some time with a stop loss of 22060. Please
note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be
tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop
loss.
2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short
trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short
correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the
reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with
extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within
the range of 22265--- 22285 with a stop loss of 22350 or sell
below 22060 with a stop loss of 22150 It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
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