A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-16.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22339.05-High—22427.45—Low—22259.55--Close-22272.50 on 15.4.2024.

Support: 22234.35/22180.70/22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 246.90 points. Please note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the in next 4-5 trading sessions, hitch is technically possible then it can move up to 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being , but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and it has been sharply going down for the last two days. Please note that it has weakened the other parameters also, therefore if it do not stage a sharp bounce back in next 2—3 trading sessions and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22297.50----22303.80---22363.12-----22381.36---22389-----22398----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568----22619-----22664.33---22672.47-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 22381.36 will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend, sustained close above 22407 will provide it some strength, sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track, it will get out of all corrective mode above 22664.33 and finally sustained close above 22672.47 may ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also. 

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 22224.35-----22126.80----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It has slipped into deep short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed well below its critical and threshold points of 22664.33---22524.24 & 22389, furthermore it has threatened the on-going up move as it closed below it most critical point of 22526.60, sustained break below 22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the down move could be more deep & painful.

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are positive now and one most important indicator has turned negative today on the daily chart, which is weak sign but can give both side moves but down move may have the edge. Furthermore three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and it has already been moving down for the last 2 days, furthermore there is no improvement on the weekly indicators from the previous week which is not a good sign, therefore, volatility & some weak weekly & monthly indicator is a concern. Furthermore the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short term moving averages after a long time, broken bottoms on the line and bar chart therefore it has to be seen for the next 2-3 trading sessions that how it behaves and if it fails to recover fast then down-slide may continue.  It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but they have to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE BELOW 22217 & 22126.80 BECAUSE FALL MAY ACCELERATE BELOW THESE POINTS. IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY SAFE TO TRY LONG TRADE ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 22381.36(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND SUSTAIN.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 22127 and not below it with a stop loss of 22070. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22420--- 22450 with a stop loss of 22520 or sell below 22250 with a stop loss of 22345 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com