A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22212.35-High—22326.50—Low—21961.70--Close-21995.85 on 18.4.2024.

Support: 21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22124.15/22126.80/22180.70/22234.35/22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side wild moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 152.50 points. It has been relentlessly falling for the last 4 days which has shook the technical setup, therefore further fall from here cannot be ruled out. Please note that today it has filled the 2^nd gap it created on 16.4.2024(gap point was-22259.55) but the gap it created on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 2-3 trading sessions , which is technically possible then it can move up to 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down move is on. Please note that other parameters has also weakened further, therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22126.80----22153.80---22224.35-----22283----22297.50----22303.80---22350----22363.12-----22389------22395----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568----22612.90----22619----22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 22153.80 will give a ray of hope that it can give a meaningful pullback up move, sustained close above the range of 22283----22316 & 22367 will provide it, sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track, it will get out of all corrective mode above 22664.33 and finally sustained close above 22612.90 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also. 

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 21962---21923----21913----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into deep correction mode, it has very strong support in the range of 21962---21913 therefore it is expected to bounce back from here but sustained break below the range will open up the possibility to drag it down to 21710.20 levels or much below, break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.

It is important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart, which is huge weak sign and indicates further down move is ahead. Furthermore three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart and some below on the weekly chart also after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the line and bar chart after a long time, therefore all together it is indicating extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies. However, if it stages a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some of its important points as mentioned above then the chances of up could be there, else down move may continue. It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but they have to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS INTO CORRECTIVE MODE AND MOVING DOWN FROM HERE IT HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT IN THE RANGE OF 21962----21923 & 21913, IT MAY BOUNCE BACK FROM THIS RANGE BUT SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 21923 & 21913 CAN DRAG IT DOWN TO 21710.20 LEVELS OR MUCH LOWER. IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE IN GENERAL TILL VISIBLE SIGN OF CORRECTION COPMLETION EMERGES. HOWEVER AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE AT CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH PROPER STOP LOSSES FOR PULLBACK GAINS. BUT FOR THE SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO TRY LONG TRADE ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 22153.80(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND SUSTAIN.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21960---21925 and not below it with a stop loss of 21850. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22190--- 22230 with a stop loss of 22290 or sell below 21900 with a stop loss of 22000 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com