A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY-4.3.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22406.95--High—22419.55—Low—22367.05--Close-22378.40 on 2.3.2024.

Support: 22376/22297.50/22252.50/22249.40/22126.80/ 22124.15/ 22079.67/ 21926.76/21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/ 21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22419.55/22453/22463/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23117/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and hit a new all-time high of 22419.55 and then had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 39.65 points. It is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a  concern and it is not a good sign for a steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks & months. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Although it is decisively above the Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80, but please note that it had been giving whip saw movement around this point in the last few days, therefore it has to be seen whether it sustains above it or not in the next 2-3 days. It showed tremendous strength on 1.3.2024, but the next day although it hit a new high but follow on up move was not that great (may be because of very short trading hours), therefore it has to be seen over the next 2-3 trading sessions whether the strength shown was real or it was because of the short covering, so watch out and see how it behaves in coming days. Please note that if it sustains above it then the maximum upside target for the pattern could be 23117 with in between resistance points at 22376---22457---22623---22787---22870. It is important to mention here that if it fails to hold the range of 22126.80---22116.92----22100----22014(figures may change) then sharp fall is very much likely, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22419.50---22457---22623---22787---22870---23117. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a while and move sideways. But if it moves above 23117 and sustain then up move can extend further.

Similarly moving down from here the important support points could be at 22287.65---22209.66----22140----22126.80----22116.92---22100----22014---21963.75---21860---21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21593---21500----21448.65---21380----21285.55----21137.20(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, but sustained break below the range of 22287.65---22209.66 on the closing basis will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its very recent rise, sustained break below the range of 22126.80---22014 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21727.75 may jeopardize the up momentum and then break below each point will weaken it further and finally sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators have turned positive but one indicator is still negative on the daily chart giving mixed indication that it may swing both ways in coming days. One most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. But the other important parameter such as moving average placements is good, made higher top on the line and bar chart and price action has also been good more or less consistently. Therefore if these two parameters remains good and it manage to hold key points as mentioned above up move is likely to continue with in between short correction. Last but not the least in worst case scenario as long as it holds 21963.75(figure may change) on the closing basis hope of up move will be alive. The bias is positive now and it is buy on decline market as of now.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22297----22270 with a stop loss of 22190 or if it moves above 22420 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22350. 

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22450--- 22500 with a stop loss of 22570 or sell below 22360 with a stop loss of 22435. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com