A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.3.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47351.35--High—47812.75--Low—46884.45---Close—47282.40on 12.3.2024.

Support: 47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46929.70/46892.35/46886.90/46580.30/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 47363.40/47411.65/47481.35/47588/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up higher but could not sustain and slipped down and finally ended the day with a small loss of 45.45 points. It is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a huge concern and is not a good sign for a steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks & months.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis. It has been below all these points for a long time. But it was inching up towards the aforesaid critical points in the last few days, but it corrected again and continued the fall for the 3^nd day .please note that if it holds the level of 47191.65(it did breach this level intraday today but closed above it) on the closing basis then it is likely to resume the up move again ,else correction may deepen..  

Moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 47280.44---47191.65---47141---47095----47000----46966------46911----46908----46616---46596-----46455----46251----46161----46077---46036---46006----45820---45421.96---45295---45194----44819(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points, but it is into short & medium correction mode for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 47571.37 &47328.78, break below 47280.44  will push it into long correction mode for its recent rise, sustained break below 47191.65 may trigger fresh fall,  sustained break below the range of 47141---46908 may accelerate the fall, break below 46006 will threaten the long term up trend, sustained break below 45421.96 may end the possibility for the continuation of the up move for a while and it may head for further down move and finally sustained break below 44819 may jeopardize the long term uptrend, which please note.    

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 47328.78---47363.40---47433.85---47571.37----47644--- 47795----48166.15---48203.45---48292.25---48636.45---48722---48925---49024(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. But if it moves above 47571.37 and sustain then it will get out of corrective mode and finally if it moves above 47795 and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest its all-time high of 48636.45 or may go beyond it also.

It is important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart indicating that up move is likely to continue. But two out of five indicators on the weekly & two on the monthly chart is still negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months but it has improved, however caution is suggested. But the most important thing is that other parameters such as moving averages placement is still good, it made higher top on the line and the bar chart and finally the price action has been more or less good consistently, but today it was weak, so watch out. Therefore if these parameters remain o.k. and it moves above its few important points then the up move is likely to continue. Last but not the least in the worst case scenario as long as it holds 45421.96 (figure may change) on the closing basis hope of up move will be alive. The bias is positive and since it is having both way swing therefore both side trades can be attempted in the appropriate price range. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 47191 with a stop loss of 47000 or if it moves above 47365 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47180. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but as it is into short & medium correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47750---47800 with a stop loss of 47950 or sell below 47180 with a stop loss of 47370 it could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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