A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—5.3.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47318.50--High—47529.60--Low—47191.65---Close—47456.10 on 4.3.2024.

Support: 47433.85/47415.8547363.40/47259.89/47010.80/46892.35/46886.90/46580/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45655.50/ 45527/45430.70/45238.80/45071.20/44949.90/44710.55/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44182.50/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and then had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 158.60 points. It is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a huge concern and is not a good sign for a steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks & months.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis. It has been way below all these points for a long time. But it is showing good strength for the last few days and inching up towards the aforesaid critical points, which is a good sign. Please note that after giving a robust up move on 1.3.2024 it has been moving in a very short range for the last two days, which indicates that it may be preparing for a big move on the either side in next 2-3 days. So watch out how it behaves.

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 47644---47795----48203.45---48292.25---48636.45(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. But if it moves above 47795 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45 or may go beyond it also. 

Similarly going down further the broad support points could be at 47363.40---47433.85---47095----47089---46846.20---46798----46655---46596---46375---46351----46108----46080---46035---45883----45740---45421.96---45295---45194----44692(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points, but break below 47095 & 47089 will push it into short correction mode for its recent rise, break below 46846.20 & 46798 will push it into deep correction mode for its recent rise, sustained break below the range of 46655---46351 may accelerate the fall, break below 45883 will threaten the long term up trend, sustained break below 45421.96 may end the possibility for the continuation of the up move for a while and it may head for further down move and finally sustained break below 44692 may jeopardize the long term uptrend, which please note.    

It is important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators have turned positive now on the daily chart indicating that up move is likely to continue. But four out of five indicators on the weekly & two on the monthly chart is negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months which is highly concerning. But other most  important parameters such as moving averages placement is good, it made  higher top on the line and the bar chart and finally the price action has been more or less good consistently. Therefore if these parameters remain o.k. then the up move is likely to continue. Last but not the least in the worst case scenario as long as it holds 45421.96 (figure may change) on the closing basis hope of up move will be alive. The bias is positive now and it is buy on decline market as of now. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 47363-----47297 with a stop loss of 47100 or if it moves above 47539 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47280. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 46700---46400 with a stop loss of 46280.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47750---47800 with a stop loss of 47900. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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