A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY-18.3.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22064.85--High—22120.90—Low—21931.70--Close-22023.35 on 15.3.2024.

Support:21931.70/21917.50/21905.65/ 21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21726.95 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22053.30/22075.15/ 22124.15/22126.80/ 22224.35/22297.50/22440/22525.65/22549/22590/22625/22658/22735/22787/22870/23082/23117/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and then had both side moves and finally ended the day with a loss of 123.30 points. The volatility is still continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months, which please keep in mind.  It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

it is below its Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80, which is a very weak sign and if it fails to bounce back above it in next 1-2 trading sessions and sustain then it will be a pattern failure and it may head down sharply, which may please be noted.

Moving down from here the important support points could be at 21994----21963.75---21910---21905.65----21860---21801.45----21765---21731.40----21727.75-----21668----21593---21500----21448.65---21415---21380----21297.50----21137.20(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, please note that it has already slipped into short, medium and long  correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 22368.71---22290.72 & 22198, which is a weak sign, sustained break below 21905.65 &  21860 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21727.75 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024 and then break below each point will weaken it further and finally sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the fall.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22053----22126.80----22161---22218-----22236---22290.72----22368.71----22419.50--22440.90----22549---22590---22625---22658----22735----22787---22870---23117. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a while and move sideways. Please note that if it moves above 22126.80 and sustain then it may gain a foothold, if it moves above the range of 22161---22297.50(figure will change daily) and sustain then it will gain good strength, it will get out of all corrective mode if it moves above 22368.71 and sustain and then it may get back on the up momentum track, which please note.

It is important to mention here all the five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart, one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. Furthermore it is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, today it fell below its short term moving averages and some medium term moving averages on the daily chart and finally price action has also weaken in last 2-3 days. Therefore all together the situation is highly concerning and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in next 2-3 trading sessions and move above the key points as mentioned above then the down move will continue with in between short relief rallies. But if it moves above 22053(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then there will be a hope of a pullback up move. It is still in the long term uptrend but in correction mode, therefore it is sell on the rise market now but long trade can also be tried at critical support points for pullback gains. Short term bias is down.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21905----21860 for some time with a stop loss of 21800 else avoid. However aggressive can also try long trade if it moves above 22071 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21975.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it is into deep correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22130--- 22170 with a stop loss of 22240 or sell if it moves below 21975 with a stop loss of 22075. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com