A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY-13.3.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22334.45--High—22452.55—Low—22256--Close-22335.70 on 12.3.2024.

Support: 22297.50/22224.35/22126.80/ 22124.15/ 22075.15/ 22053.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21726.95 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22440/22525.65/22549/22590/22625/22658/22735/22787/22870/23082/23117/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and went up further but could not sustain at the higher levels and slipped down and finally ended the day flat with a meager gain of 3.05 points. It is still looking good setup wise, therefore likely to continue the up move if it holds the key point of 22224.35 else it may slip down further. It is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a  concern and it is not a good sign for a steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks & months. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

It is decisively above the Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80, if it hold this mark then the maximum upside target for the pattern could be 23117, else it may head down, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22419.50---22440.90----22549---22590---22625---22658----22735----22787---22870---23117. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a while and move sideways. But if it moves above 23117 and sustain then up move can extend further.

Similarly moving down from here the important support points could be at 22368.71---22290.72----22279---22198-----22196---22126.80----22018----21994----21963.75---21860---21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21593---21500----21448.65---21380----21297.50----21137.20(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, please note that today it is already into short correction mode as it closed below its threshold point of 22368.71, sustained break below the range of  22290.72---22279---22198 & 22196 on the closing basis will push it into  deep  correction mode for its very recent rise, sustained break below 22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21727.75 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024 and then break below each point will weaken it further and finally sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are still positive but two indicators are negative on the daily chart giving mixed indication that it may swing both ways in coming days and eventually may head down. One most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. Furthermore it has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today which is slightly concerning but if it holds 22224.35 and finally 22126.80 on the closing basis then it may resume the up move, else correction may deepen. But the other important parameter such as moving average placements is still good and the price action has also been good more or less consistently, but today it was weak, so watch out. Therefore if these two parameters remains good and it manage to bounce back above the key point and hold the key point as mentioned above the up move is likely to continue with in between short correction. Last but not the least in worst case scenario as long as it holds 21963.75(figure may change) on the closing basis hope of up move will be alive. The bias is still positive as of now.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 22332 for some time with a stop loss of 22250 or can buy on decline near 22126.80 with a stop loss of 22070 or can buy if it moves above 22384 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22300. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it is into short correction mode ,therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22450--- 22500 with a stop loss of 22550 or sell below 22224 with a stop loss of 22310. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com