A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—25.10.2023

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43822.70---High—43831.20---Low---43029.45---Close—43151.20 on 23.10.2023.

Support: 43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/42108/41962/41829/41626/41569/41060/40819.

Resistance: 43345.95/43446/43519.55/43600.35/43706.15/43830.75/43862/43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/.        

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note but could not move up further and steadily moved down and never looked up and finally ended the day with huge loss of 571.85 points. It is exhibiting tremendous weakness. It closed below its critical support point of 43345 which is trend threatening and if it remains below it then it then it could be heading for big fall in coming days, however the range of 43038.25---42986.45 & 42953 could be the last savior range and sustained break below this range can end the uptrend for a while and may head for deep down move. It is already into deep short & medium term correction mode for earlier rise and also into short correction mode for its very recent rice. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below medium term moving averages on the daily and some on the weekly chart also and most importantly below most of the long term moving averages also on the daily chart, all together these developments are very concerning and indicates further fall is ahead for sure. Please note that to gain some foothold it has to move above at least 43345 and sustain on the closing basis and then it has to move above  its meaningful pullback threshold point of 43818(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then the up move can extend. But to gain good strength it has to close above 44151.80 & 44240(figure may change) and sustain, and close above 44580(figure may change) may help it for a steady and smooth up move. But to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44711---44890---45816 & 45820(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis, which seems difficult to happen at this point of time. The short term technical setup is weak and it has jolted long term setup also on the daily chart, furthermore all the five important indicators are negative now therefore chances of moving down further from here looks bright, four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and it was terribly weak today, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened. So be watchful.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 43345---43796.75---43818---43830.75---44151.80---44203---44305---44375---44539---44670---44700---44711---45094---45118---45311---45581---45671---45702---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- Technically it is on a very weak footing in comparison with CNX-Nifty at this point of time, so it is under performing and may keep on doing so. It had down move for the last four days and the price action has also been weak and most importantly today it closed below its trend threatening point of 43345, so if it does not bounce back above it in a day or two and sustain on the closing basis then the further fall looks inevitable. Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 42650 or much lower levels. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 43818 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 43345 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 43200 or on decline near or within the range of 43038---42953 with a stop loss of 42850. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying.   

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short and medium correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore short trade should be attempted but with some caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 43550---43650 with a stop loss of 43750 or sell if does not move above 43345 intraday with a stop loss of 43450 or sell below 43100 with a stop loss of 43370.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.