A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—19.10.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---44404.20---High—44412.50---Low---43861.45---Close—43888.70 on 18.10.2023.

Support:43862/43830.75/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance:43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.             

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to negative note and steadily moved down and finally ended the day near the low of the day with a loss of 520.80 points. It is exhibiting huge weakness. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode for earlier rise and also into short correction mode for it’s very recent rice as it is below its threshold point of 44495(figure may change). It is below all its short & some medium term moving averages on the daily and some on the weekly chart also and most importantly below some long term moving averages also on the daily chart, furthermore it is well below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 44390(figure may change) and also decisively below its key and critical range of 44254---44189 &44151.80, please note that if it does not bounce back above this range in a shortest possible time say in 1-2 trading sessions then the fall may deepen.

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 Please note that sustained close above 44694 may help it for a steady and smooth up move.  But to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 44920---45816 & 45820(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup is weak and on the daily chart three out of five important indicators are negative now therefore chances of moving down from here looks bright, furthermore few indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, the price action was terribly weak today, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened today. So be watchful.

Kindly note that moving down from here the key support points could be 43796.75---43600.35---43446---43345.90---43038.25---42986.45---42943(figure may change) sustained break below 43796.75 may drag it down further, break below 43600.35 will be an alert point for further fall, sustained break below 43345.90 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it could be trend threatening also and finally sustained break below 43038.25---42986.45 & 42943 may end the possibility of a steady up move for a while and it may head for deep down move, which please note. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44151.80---44189---44254---44390---44539---44658---44694---44757---44985---45054---45118---45311---45350---45671---45725---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- technically it is on a very weak footing in comparison with CNX-Nifty at this point of time, so it is under performing and may keep on doing so. Break below 43796 could drag it down further for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 44390 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 43600---43345 with a stop loss of 43100. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.   

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short and medium correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened today, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44250---44350 with a stop loss of 44450 or sell below 43796 with a stop loss of 44060.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.