A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—27.9.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---44722.50---High—44773.80---Low---44532.45---Close—44624.20 on 26.9.2023.

Support:-44547.80/44539/44498.60/44459.25/44279.40/44254/44207.25/44151.80/ 43950/43862/43830.75/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance:44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50/ 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and could not move much higher and started drifting down and finally ended the day with a loss of 141.90 points. It almost retraced yesterdays up move today which is a bad sign.  It is already into deep short term correction mode for its recent rise. It is below some of its short & medium term moving averages on the daily and below some short term moving averages on the weekly chart also, which is a weak sign and indicates that further fall may be ahead with short relief rallies. Please note that for the reasonable or good pullback up move it has to move above 44852(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else the down move may continue,  but to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 45200---45816 & 45929(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. However, if it manages to hold 44548.90 (figure may change) on the closing basis then the hope of an up may be alive, else it may slip down to it next strong support range of 44254---44151.80 and break below this range could be highly concerning. The short term technical setup has weakened, furthermore on the daily chart all the five important indicators are negative now therefore down move is likely to continue, few indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are also showing weakness as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 but today it showed some improvement as it did not break previous day low. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and if it starts to make higher highs & low then the trend could reverse, else further downside is open. It is into deep short correction mode now but the long term trend is up.  

Kindly note that moving down from here the key support points could be 44612---44548.90---44539---44254---44151.80(figure may change) 44612 is the recent bottom on the line chart sustained break below it could be concerning, break below 44539 will push it into deep long term corrective mode but if it holds 44254 & 44151.80 on the closing basis then the hope of  up move will still  be alive ,but break below 44151.80 on the closing basis may dampen the possibility of continuation of the up move and it may slide down and then the next strong support range would be between 44019----43600----43446---43345.95 Break below 44019(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend. It is important to mention here that sustained break below 43345.95 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated down move and most importantly it could be trend threatening also, which may please be noted.

 Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44628---44852---44985—45118---45130---45356---45581----45716---45716---45782.75---45816---45860---45929---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- It is into short correction mode now, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 45816 and sustain, therefore long trade could be risky thing till correction is on and it can get out of corrective mode if it closes above 45814, but long trade can be tried intraday at critical support points for pullback gains only. Long trade below 44612 & 44532 could be a risky bet for the day. Please note that a big move on either side is expected in a day or two and looking at the price action it seems that it may head down. So watch the price action.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 44852 at least. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline if it holds 44612 levels for some time with a stop loss of 44500 or on further decline near or within the range of 44254—44151.80 with a stop loss of 43970.

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short correction mode now, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44870---44900 with a stop loss of 45070 or sell if it moves below 44532 with a stop loss of 44650.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.