A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—21.9.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---45493.70---High—45745.15---Low---45276.40---Close—45384.60 on 20.9.2023.

Support:- 45238.80/45118.05/44949.60/44795/44547.80/44539/44498.60/44459.25/44279.40/44254/44207.25/44151.80/ 43950/43862/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance:45655.50/ 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a huge down gap and recovered a bit in first hour for trading but could not sustain and steadily moved down and finally ended the day with a loss of 595.25 points. Please note that as envisaged the down move continued and it slipped into deep short term correction mode today for its recent gain as it decisively closed below its threshold point of 45814 & 45671 (figure may change) the way it got corrected today is highly concerning and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in next 3-4 trading sessions and moves above 45816 and sustain on the closing basis then the correction may extend further. Furthermore it has also moved below some of its short term moving averages and broken recent bottom on the line chart, which is a very weak sign and indicates further downside may be ahead. However, if it manages to hold the range of 45300---45230 on the closing basis then it could still stage a pullback, else down move may continue. The technical setup still looks good, furthermore all the important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart despite today’s fall, therefore the up move can still resume, but on the weekly& monthly chart few indicators are giving weak signal which is concerning and it can dampen the up move and may get it into deep correction mode if price action weakens. The price action had weakened on 18.9.2023 and today it was terribly bad and it slipped into deep short corrective mode also. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and if it does not improve in next 3-4 trading sessions then further downside is open. It is into short correction mode now but the long term trend is up.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 45671---45782.75---45816---46310.40---46369.50---46761---47063---47123---47284---47427---47755(figure may change) Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust for a while. It seems that rally has exhausted for now and to put it back on the up momentum track it has to close above 45816 & 46104(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

Kindly note that moving down from here the  key support points could be 45300----45230---44970---44539---44151.80(figure may change) if it holds the range of 45300---45230 on the closing basis then the hope of  up move will be alive , break below 44970(figure will change every day)  could be very concerning, break below 44539 will push it into deep long term corrective mode and finally break below 44151.80 on the closing basis may dampen the possibility of continuation of the up move and it may slide down and then the next strong support range would be between 43954----43600----43446---43345.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- It has slipped into deep short corrective mode today, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 45816 and sustain, therefore long trade could be risky till correction is on but it can be tried at critical support points for pullback gains. Long trade below 45231 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 45300---45230 if it hold the range for some time with a stop loss of 45000.   

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it has slipped into deep short corrective mode  today, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45730----45810 with a stop loss of 45950 or sell if it moves below 45230 with a stop loss of 45430.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.