A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—17.8.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43726.25---High—44002.80---Low---43600.35---Close—43946.40 on 16.8.2023.

Support: 43706.15/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20

Resistance:43950/ 44120.90/44151.80/44279.40/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50/45782.75/46310.10/46369.50.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It has been falling for the last 5 days in a row, so it may stage a short relief up move also any time soon. It opened with a down gap today and went down further and then recovered to some extent but finally ended the day with a loss of 144.55 points. It is well below its very crucial and critical point of 44151.80. The short term technical setup and technical indicators are very weak on the daily chart and it is already into deep and long term corrective mode and most importantly the weakness has sneaked into the weekly chart also in some respect which is highly concerning, therefore it is likely to go down further in coming days for sure, however to give some hope of moving up it has to close above 44151.80 and sustain, else it may keep on moving down with short relief rallies in between. Moving down it will find very strong support in the range of 43517----43345 it may bounce back from this range but break below the range will trigger fresh fall, as of now it seems that eventually it will break this range. Please note that it may possibly resume the up move again if it moves above 45118.05 & 45210(figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis, but even if it closes above 44254(figure may change) and sustain then there could be some hope of a pullback up move which may be kept in mind. The short term bias is down but the long term uptrend is still intact as of now. Please note that as of now the overall indication is that it is likely head down and may seek much lower levels in coming days.

Moving  down further from here its good support points could be at 43706.15---43600----43507---43390---43345----43038.25---42986.45(figures may change), these could be possible buying points also as  it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again or  may keep sliding down also. It is already into long and deep corrective mode, break below  each support point will weaken it further, break below 43517(figure may change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend, break below 43345 may trigger fresh fall and finally sustained break below 43038.25 & 42986.45 may accelerate the fall.

Similarly moving up from here it may face resistance at 43950---44120.90---44151.80---4425444547.80---44652---44737---44883---44980---45118.05---45350(figure may change) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally can fizzle out also. Please note that to keep the up move alive at this point of time it has to move above 44151.80 and sustain on the closing, furthermore 44254(figure may change) is its pullback threshold point and if it closes above it and sustain then there is a hope that it could give a relief up rally, else down move may continue. It may resume the steady up move again only if it closes above 45118.05 & 45210(figure will change every day) and sustain.   

IMPORTANT NOTE:-Long trade below 44151.80 & 43845 could be a risky bet for the day. Please note that as of now technical Indicators are pointing towards moderate to sharp fall in coming days/weeks and it can possibly hit the range of 44000---43600(it did hit the lower band today) or below on the downside. Since it is in correction mode, hence it is sell on the rise market for now, therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade for the time being, but can be tried at critical support points for pullback gains with strict stop losses.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or if it closes above 45118.05 or at least above 44254(pullback threshold point) and sustain. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 43517---43345 but not below it with a stop loss of 43250. Please note that long trade could be a risky bet in correction mode but worth trying at critical support range for pullback gains.

2. It is still in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into deep and long corrective mode  therefore it is sell on the rise market now, so short trade should be attempted on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44300---44400 with a stop loss of 44560 or sell below 43840 with a stop loss of 44065.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.