CNX-NIFTY
Open—17796.25--High—17805.25—Low—17280.45---Close-17416.55 on
22.11.2021.
Support:17326.10/17254.20/17055/16701.85.
Resistance: -17452.90/17576/17613.15/17688.50/17763/17792.95/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18069.25/18210.15/18342.05/18604.50.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a positive note but
could not sustain and had relentless fall and finally closed with a whopping
loss of 348.25
points. It is into deep short term correction
mode and break below 17312.85 will
push it into medium term correction mode, which may please be noted. It is below
its short term moving averages on the daily and the weekly chart, almost below all
of the medium term moving averages and also below some of its long term
parameters on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does
not bounce back sharply in next 2-3
days then the accelerated fall may continue as it did today. Moving down
further its other important support points are at 17326.10---17254.20---16785---16701---16565.60(figure
may change), please note that sustained break below 16785 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger. Similarly
moving up it will face stiff resistance from its critical points at 17452---17613---17792.95---17947.65---17961---18036---18112---18127---18224---18313(figures
may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it has to move above
this range and sustain, but looking at today’s severe intensity down move
chances of crossing this range is very slim at this point of time.
It is important to mention here that
it is way below its correction completion point of 17875 & 18285.80, furthermore it is also below its pullback
threshold points of 17500--17531 &
17593 (figure may change) which is a very weak indication and if it fails to bounce back above it and sustain on the closing
basis then fall may continue with in between short up move. Please note that if
it moves above 17500 & 17531 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may give a weak intensity pullback rally
and if it moves above 17593 and
sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it may give slightly better
and moderately strong pullback move. But the overall short term technical setup
is very weak mind you.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert
and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is important to mention here that its
long term technical setup is still o.k. for the
uptrend to continue as long as it holds 16785(figure
will change every day). It is into deep short term correction mode, it is
below its all critical support points also as mentioned above therefore further
fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that
few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart
and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it seems that it
may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks, as it did today, if the
technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in
deep corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till
visible sign of correction completion emerges. The, short term bias is hugely
weak and negative.
In view of the above, it is into deep
short term correction mode and also below its pullback threshold points, therefore
for safe traders long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes
above 17593 and sustain for the pullback
gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 17453 and maintain for some time but
should avoid buy on decline. I strongly caution here that long trade in a
corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be
extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time. It is still in the long term uptrend but now
in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on
the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for
taking advantage of the intraday gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge
gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but
short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and
vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly
suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy if it moves above 17453 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 17400. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky
trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 17570---17590 with a stop loss of 17630. It could be a risky
trade but worth trying for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it remains below 17453
for some time with a stop loss of 17510. It could be a risky trade but worth
trying for intraday gain.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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