A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—16.11.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—38849.45---High—39117.15--Low—38606.60---Close—387 on 15.11.2021.

Support:38377.25/38112.75/37708.75/37315.20/36876.35.

 

Resistance: -38873.80/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60/41965/42036/42222.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up further and could not sustain at the upper level and finally closed with a meager loss of 31 points. It is still into short term correction mode. It is below its short and long pullback threshold point of 38774.20 & 39169(it may change) and also below its short and some medium term moving averages which is a very weak indication. Furthermore it is decisively below its first lair of critical support range of 40937—40650---40338(figure will change every day) which is concerning and if it does move above it in a short period of time further fall may be ahead with in between short relief rallies. Please note that it may regain up momentum only if it closes above this range and sustain.  Its second lair of critical support range is 38470---38272---38049(figure will change every day), it may bounce back from any of these points but sustained break below the range will put the on-going uptrend in jeopardy and it may witness an accelerated fall. Moving down further its other important support points are at 36876.35---36700---36525.95(figure may change), please note that sustained break below 36700 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger.

It is important to mention here that it could come out of corrective mode if it closes above 40661 & 41231 and sustain, now it is below its short and some medium term moving averages and also below its short and long term pullback threshold point of 38774.20 & 39169 (figure may change) which is a very weak sign and if it does not move above it and the moving averages in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it could continue with the down move with short up rally in between. But if it moves above 38774.20 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it could still give a pullback rally may be of a weak intencity. However moving up from here its critical resistance points could be at 38774.20---39169---39727---40011.15---40128---40160---40247---40537---41027---41149---41367.25---41830(figures may change) and it could react from any of these points and then may move up again or may break down also which may please be noted. Kindly note that now it is a sell on the rise markets till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The short term bias still looks weak. 

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly; therefore one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup still looks good for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 36700(figure will change every day). It is into short term correction mode and below its pullback threshold point of 38774.20 & 39169, it is below its few critical resistance points also as mentioned above, which indicates weakness, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicators are also weak therefore it seems that it may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks if it does not move above its key points mentioned above. Since it is in corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. It is suggested in general to avoid long trade as of now.

In view of the above, it is into correction mode and also below its pullback threshold point of 38774.20 & 39169(figure may change) therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till it gives visible sign of correction completion or it closes above the pullback threshold point of 38774.20. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 38775 and maintain for some time or on decline in the range of 38470---38272---38049 but not below it for pullback gains. I caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time.  It is in the long term uptrend but now in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near or within the range of 38470---38272---38049 but not below it with a stop loss of 37900. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 38775 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 38690. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 39150---39190 with a stop loss of 39260. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

 

Sell if it moves below 38346 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 38570. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.