Monday, 21 June 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR-22.6.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—15525.25--High—15765.15—Low—15505.15---Close-15746.50 on 21.6.2021.

Support:15678/15629.65/15606.55/15566/15471/15450.90/15431.75/15336.30/15273.15/15263/15257.10/15176.50/15051.60/14984.15/14888.80/14883.20/14753.55/14653.35/14595/14484.12/14467.75/14459.50/14350.10/14264.40/14248/14222.80/14151.40/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: - 15780/15835.55/15877/15902/ 15920/ 15989/16085/16223/16750.   

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It has been exhibiting huge volatility for the last two days and it is breaking the lower band of the important range of 15780---15606 decisively intraday, but  managed to close within the range at the end of the day and today it closed with a gain of 63.15 points. It has been making higher top and bottom on the line chart, therefore as long as it holds its recent bottom of 15683.35 (it may change) on the closing basis it is o.k. for the up move but break below it could drag it down and break below 15606 could accelerate the fall. Although it closed near the upper band of the range today, but for the steady up move and strong momentum it has to move above 15780 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start moving down again. It is important to mention here that some technical indicators are showing weakness and pointing that if it does not improve fast then it could move down fast, which is bad sign, so be alert and cautious.  

The long term technical setup is still looking good for  the continuation of the up move as of now but with intermittent down correction and as long as it holds  15471 & 15431.75 levels on the closing basis, then it could still scale up to 15780---15920---16223---16750---17250---17503---19575---20390 levels, but please note that it could end the up rally for good at any of these points or earlier also or may correct at any of these points and then may resume the rally again, both the possibilities are there which may be kept in mind. Similarly moving down its critical support points are at 15683.35---16606.35---15566.90---15488.55---15471---15431.75.  Please note that sustained break below 15683.35 may push it into a very short corrective mode, sustained break below 15566 could accelerate the fall, sustained break below 15488.55(this figure can change) on the closing basis will push it into deep short term corrective mode and sustained break below 15471 & 15431.75 on the closing basis will deepen the correction further and may threaten the uptrend also, which may please be noted. Moving down other critical support levels will be at 15374---15273---15257---15176---15111---15084---14977---14906---14884. The long term outlook is positive as of now but  short term bias  still looks dicey till it moves above 15780 and sustain on the closing basis. Therefore it is suggested to be extra cautious and careful in the long trade at this point of time.

It is important to mention here that technically this on-going uptrend is showing enough strength and looking good for the continuation of the up move but this up rally is not in sync with the fundamentals and you are well aware that it is the fundamentals which eventually hold the Priceline. Therefore this on-going up rally may deceive you at any point of time, so be alert and careful in long trade henceforth.   

In view of the above observation, it is suggested to trade the range of 15780—15606 as of now till either side breakout happens on the closing basis. But for highly safe traders it is strongly suggested to trade long only once it closes above 15780 and sustain.  Please note that long trade below 15683 could be a risky trade mind you because if it moves and sustain below it for a longer time during the day then it could move down sharply. Since it has not yet crossed some of its critical long term averages, therefore short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it hold 15683 but not below it with a stop loss of 15650. It could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near 15606 but not below it with a stop loss 15560. It could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 15780 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 15730. It could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 15800---15820 with a stop loss of 15845. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below15683 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 15720.

Or

Sell if it moves below15606 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 15640.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

  Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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