A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—18.6.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-34619.80--High-34882.40--Low—34458.10--Close-34605.40 on 17.6.2021

Support:34410/34374/34287/33990.80/33625/33371/33306.80/32842.30/32613.10/32465.45/32415.15/32347/32157.05/32130/31783.60/31661/31649.49/31297.30/31264.05.

 

Resistance;34641/34658.70/34893.25/34930/34976/35380/35428.15/35584.30/35648/35810.90/35902.90/36248/36455.15/36497/36615/37232/37708.75.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It has broken it’s both the bottom of 34950.36 & 34800.50 on the line chart decisively, thereby pushing it into very short term corrective mode again, furthermore it is also below some of its short term moving averages now, which is an extremely weak sign and if it does not bounce back sharply and move above 35248(this figure can change) as of now on the closing basis in the next 2-3 trading sessions, then down move may continue with intermittent relief rally.  It is important to mention here that it will only resume the steady up move once it crosses its critical range of 35648---36248 and sustain above it on the closing basis, else down move will definitely continue. Please note that if it sustain above 36248 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 37708.75 or may go beyond also. But looking at last few days movement chances of moving above 36248 and sustain looks extremely bleak at this point of time. However going up to 36248 level from here it will face critical resistance at 34641.20---34894---34930---35070---35176---35472---35527---35584.30---35649---35810.90---36248. Similarly moving down its critical support points would be at 34535.26(this figure can change)—34410---33625 & 33273.  It has gotten into very short term corrective mode today, sustained break below 34535.26 will push it into deep short term corrective mode, sustained break below 34410 will accelerate the down move and sustained break below 33625 & 33273 could deepen the correction further. The other critical support points are at 34287---34249.33---33625---33334---33273---33130---32921.15---32613---32465. The long term outlook is positive as of now but with today’s move short term bias looks weak as of now. 

It is important to mention here that technically this on-going uptrend is showing enough strength and looking good for the continuation of the up move but this up rally is not in sync with the fundamentals and you are well aware that it is the fundamentals which eventually hold the Priceline. Therefore this on-going up rally may deceive you at any point of time, so be alert and careful in long trade henceforth.   

In view of the above observation, it is into very short corrective mode again; therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade in general till clarity on correction completion emerges. However highly aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 34700 and maintain for some time or can buy on decline at appropriate points or near 34374 but not below it. Please note that any type of long trade in the corrective mode could be a risky affair, mind you. Since it has not crossed its critical resistance range as mentioned above and into corrective mode again, therefore short trade should be tried after the reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near 34374 but not below it with a stop loss of 34140. It is for the highly aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 34700 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34570. It is for the highly aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 34990---35100 with a stop loss of 35175. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 34374 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34550. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.