Monday, 19 April 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR-20.4.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14306.60--High—14382.30—Low—14191.40---Close-14359.45 on 19.4.2021.

Support:14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance:14459.50/14467.75/14528/14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a huge down gap and went down further and made a low of 14191.40 and it ended the day with a loss of 258.40 points. It is important to note here that if it makes an effort to fill this gap in next 3-4 days which is technically possible then it could come up to 14559 level, but since it has broken its major rising trend line decisively today and it is already in deep correction mode for quite some time, therefore it may give some rise from here but filling the complete gap looks less likely. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is way below its first 3 key point’s of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last so many days, therefore it is already into deep short term correction mode and it seems that it will last long. Please note that sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium term correction mode which can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

It is still into deep short term correction mode. It is  below its short and  some medium term moving averages, furthermore it is well below some of its long term averages and parameters and some important technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also and most importantly it has broken its major rising trend line today and it is placed at 14475(this figure will scale up every day) for 20.4.2021, which gives potential  indication that further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days off course with in between short relief rallies from time to time and provided it does not bounce back within the trend line again and crosses some of the key points, chances of which seems less likely to happen at this point of time.  Furthermore its pullback threshold point is at 14484.12 (it can change) and it is well below it now, please note that if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it could move up further and could give a moderate to reasonable recovery, else down move will continue. Going up it will face critical resistance at-14350---14467.75---14484.12---14653---14703---14753.55----14811---14840--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471 levels. Please note that sustained close below the trend line and below 14336.34 could witness further fall in it and it could hit the range of 13750---13600 on the downside in coming days. Going down it can find critical support at-14350---14264.10---14248.70---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131. Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak. Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term setup is still holding up as of now.

In view of the above observation, it is in  deep short term correction mode, furthermore it has broken its long term rising trend line today which is tremendously weak sign and the overall short term technical setup is already weak, therefore for safe trader long trade should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion or till it closes above 14484.12. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds the range of 14310---14264. I once again caution you that long trade in a corrective market could be risky propositions and particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode and broken major rising trend line therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy on decline within the range of 14310---14264 levels with a stop loss of 14220. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.  

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14490---14530 with a stop loss of 14570. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective market for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 14248 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 14300. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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