Sunday, 11 April 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—12.4.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-32636.90--High-32972.15--Low—32329.95--Close-32448.05 on 9.4.2021

Support:32415/32329/32141/31725.85/31650.90/31510.25/31297/31264/30945.20/30893.65/30197.85/29687.70

Resistance;32465/32613.10/32718.75/32842.30/33361/33600/33625/34360.05/34568/34658.70/34803.60/34893.25/34973/35428.15/35584.60/35648/35815.75/35884/36086/36397/36455/36466/36477/36615.20/36647/36897/37170/37284/37708.25/38286/38520.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It is exhibiting tremendous weakness and today it closed with a loss of 334.80 points. It seems that down move will continue with in between short relief rallies because, it is on a very weak technical footing as of now. Please note that its critical and most important points for the year 2021 are 32613.10---32465.45---31297.30 & 31264.05 and it has broken its 1st & 2nd point of 32613.10 & 32465.45, which is a bad sign, please note that to remain in the uptrend it has to sustain above all these points. Its other key points are placed at 36063.50---35815.75---35648---33625---32612.92(figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of 36063.50---35815.75 & 35648 for the last so many days so it is already into deep short term corrective mode, it has decisively broken its 4th key point of 33625 on 5.4.2021 so, it is into medium term correction mode now and today it broke its last key point of 32612.92 so it has slipped into long term correction mode, which is very concerning. It is important to mention here that sustained close below 32612.92 could see an accelerated down move in coming days, which can last much longer and could be painful too and most importantly can potentially threaten the uptrend also which may please be noted. 

It was into deep short term correction mode, it slipped into medium term correction mode on 5.4.2021 and finally it slipped into long term correction mode today again which is a very bad sign. Furthermore it is well below its short and medium term moving averages and some long term parameters and some technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also and most importantly it has decisively broken its long term rising trend line on 24-3-2021, which indicates that further fall looks inevitable but with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days, provided it does not bounce back sharply and move above some of its key points in next few days, chances of it happening seems less likely at this point of time. Please note that its pullback threshold point is at 33455.50(figure can change), so if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then only it could continue with some up move else it will drift down. Going up it will face resistance at-32465---32842.30---32613.10---33303.90---33455.50---33588---33625---33991---34268---34438---34658.70---35062---35687---35815.75---36460---36650levels. Please note that if it remains below 33625 & 32613.10 then it is very likely to hit 30500—30000 level on the downside in coming days. Similarly going down it can find support at-32415.25---32329---32141.55---31725---31650---31297---31264---30565. Kindly, note that the short term technical setup and parameters are tremendously weak. Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term bias is still up as of now.

In view of the above observation, it is into medium term correction mode and slipped into long term correction mode today, therefore for safe trader or otherwise long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. It is suggested to try long trade only once it closes above 33455.50 and sustain for the pullback gains. However the traders who wish to take advantage of the in between up rally can try long trade on decline if it holds 32415 or near 32141 or can try if it moves and sustain above 32613.10 for some time. Please note that long trade in medium and long term corrective mode could be a very risky propositions, particularly buying on decline. Since it is into deep corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy  or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds 32415 for some time with a stop loss of 32300. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.  

Or

Buy on decline near 32141 but not below it with a stop loss of 32000. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade. 

Or

Buy if it moves and maintain above 32613.10 for some time with a stop loss of 32400. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky trade. 

2. Sell if it remains below 32613 for some time with a stop loss of 32700. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Or

Sell on the rise near or within the range of 32950---33170 with a stop loss of 33270. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Or

Sell if it moves below 32415 and sustain for some time with a stop loss of 32620. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Or

Sell if it moves below 32141 and sustain for some time with a stop loss of 32250. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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