Monday, 12 April 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—13.4.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-31637.90--High-31698.05--Low—30520.30--Close-30792 on 12.4.2021

Support:30669/30648/30520/30338.35/30220.20/29687.70/29612.55/29156/28976.75/28525.45/28388.65/27652/26641—560/26441/25598.

Resistance;30870/31264.05/31297.30/31649.45/31661/31783.60/32157.05/32347.20/32415.15/32465.45/32613.10/32842.30/33306.80/33990.80/34360/34430/34658.70.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It is exhibiting tremendous weakness with each passing day and today it plunged down sharply and close with a massive loss of 1656.05 points. It is below all its critical and most important points for the year 2021 which are placed at- 32613.10---32465.45---31297.30 & 31264.05 and also way below all its key points which are placed at-36063.50---35815.75---35648---33625---32612.92(figures can change) which is hugely negative sign. Please note that it slipped into long term correction mode on 9-4-2021 and it could only come out of it if it moves above 32613.10 and sustain on the closing basis else it will drift downward in coming days and down move could be very painful pricewise and time wise both and most importantly it can potentially threaten the long term uptrend, which may please be noted. 

It slipped into long term correction mode on 9-4-2021. It is well below its short and medium term moving averages on daily and weekly chart which indicate extreme weakness, furthermore it is below some of its long term averages and other parameters and some technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also and most importantly it has decisively broken its long term rising trend line way back on 24-3-2021, which indicates even greater weakness therefore  further fall looks inevitable but with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days. Please note that its pullback threshold point is now at 32217(figure can change), so if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then only it could continue with some up move else it will drift down, chances for crossing this mark seems less likely at this point of time. Going up it will face resistance at-31264.05---31297.30---32465---32613.10---32842.30---33303.90---33455.50---33588---33625---33991---34268---34438---34658.70---35062---35687---35815.75---36460---36650levels. Please note that if it remains below 33625 & 32613.10 then it is very likely to hit 30500—30000 level or much below on the downside in coming days, it did made a low of 30520.30 today and likely to make new lows in coming days. Going down it can find support at-30520---30220---29687.7---29612.55---29156---28976.75---28525.45---28388---27652. Kindly, note that the short term technical setup and parameters are tremendously weak. So short term bias is negative as of now and the long term setup has also got a jolt today and has potentially threatened the uptrend, therefore its movement has to be watched that how it pans out in next 3-4 days to judge the long term direction.

In view of the above observation, it is into long term correction mode, therefore for safe trader or otherwise long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. It is suggested to try long trade only once it closes above 31300 & 32218(pullback threshold point) and sustain. However the traders who wish to take advantage of the in between up rally can try long trade if it holds 30520 for some time or can try if it moves above 31300 and sustain for some time. Please note that long trade in long term corrective mode could be a very risky propositions, particularly buying on decline. Since it is into corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy  or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds 30520 for some time with a stop loss of 30400. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.  

Or

Buy if it moves above 31300 and sustain for some time with a stop loss of 31200. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade. 

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 31650---31750 with a stop loss of 31850. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Or

Sell if it moves below 30520 and sustain for some time with a stop loss of 30800. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you for sharing your views.