Open-30901.80--High-31885.45--Low—30722.85--Close-31771.60
on 13.4.2021
Support:31661/31649.45/31297.30/31264.05/30870/30669/30648/30520/30338.35/30220.20/29687.70/29612.55/29156/28976.75/28525.45/28388.65/27652/26641—560/26441/25598.
Resistance;31783.60/32157.05/32347.20/32415.15/32465.45/32613.10/32842.30/33306.80/33990.80/34360/34430/34658.70.
(Bold and underlined figures are most
important)
After the huge fall on 12.4.2021 and since it hit near its crucial support point of 30500 the same day, therefore a bounce back was expected and that is what had happened today and it moved up and closed with a gain of 979.60 points. Please note that this up move can last may be for next 2-3 days but a steady and significant rise looks less likely because it is into long term correction mode therefore the trend is down, which may be kept in mind. Its critical and most important points for the year 2021 are placed at- 32613.10---32465.45---31297.30 & 31264.05 it bounced back above last two points today but still way below its first two points which is a weak sign, furthermore it is way below all its other key points which are placed at-36063.50---35815.75---35648---33625---32612.92(figures can change) which is hugely negative sign. Please note that it slipped into long term correction mode on 9-4-2021 and it could only come out of it if it moves above 32613.10 and sustain on the closing basis else it will drift downward in coming days and down move could be very painful pricewise and time wise both and most importantly it can potentially threaten the long term uptrend, which may please be noted.
It slipped into long term correction mode on 9-4-2021. It is well below its short
and medium term moving averages on daily and weekly chart which indicate extreme
weakness, furthermore it is below some of its long term averages and other parameters
and some technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart
also and most importantly it has decisively broken its long term rising trend line
way back on 24-3-2021, which indicates
even greater weakness therefore further
fall looks inevitable but with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days.
Please note that its pullback threshold point is now at 32217(figure can change), so if it moves above it and sustain on
the closing basis then only it could continue with some up move else it will
drift down. Going up it will face resistance at-32141---32415.15---32465---32613.10---32842.30---33303.90---33455.50---33588---33625---33991---34268---34438---34658.70---35062---35687---35815.75---36460---36650levels.
Please note that if it remains below 33625
& 32613.10 then it is very likely to hit 30500—30000 level again or much below on the downside on the
closing basis in coming days. I once again reiterate that it has to move above 32613.10 and sustain on the closing
basis to give positive indication and to keep the hope alive for resumption of
strong up momentum else down move will continue with in between short relief
rallies. Going down it can find support at-31650---31297.30---31264.05---30520---30220---29687.7---29612.55---29156---28976.75---28525.45---28388---27652.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup and parameters are
tremendously weak. So short term bias is negative as of now and the long term
setup got a jolt yesterday but bounced back today which is comforting but still
its movement has to be watched for the
next 3-4 days to judge the long term
direction.
In view of the above observation, it is into long term correction mode,
therefore for safe trader or otherwise long trade in general should be avoided
till it gives visible indication of correction completion. It is suggested to
try long trade only once it closes above 31300
& 32218(pullback threshold
point) and sustain, it did close above 31300
today and therefore traders can try long trade if it holds 31300. It is suggested to avoid long trade below 31300 for sure. Please note that long
trade in long term corrective mode could be a very risky propositions,
particularly buying on decline. Since it is into long term corrective mode
therefore adopt
sell on the rise strategy or sell on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on
correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme
alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as
of now.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy if it holds 31300 for some time with a stop loss of 31200.
It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 32500---32600
with a stop loss of 32750. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gain in weak market.
Or
Sell if it moves below 31200 and sustain for some
time with a stop loss of 31350. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gain in weak market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely
of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of
the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT
STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and
exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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