Open—14237.95
--High—14237.95—Low—13929.30---Close-13967.50on 27.1.2021.
Support:13929/13777.50/13769/13721/13658.60/13611/13597.50/13548.90/13530.71/13454.48/13399.30/13242/13145.85/13131.45/12919.88/12790.40/12730.25/12607.70/12430.50.
Resistance:13981.75/13996.11/14024.85/14046/ 14222.80/14310/14567.27/14653.45/14770/14823/14890/14920/15022/15350/15471/15868/16047.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
As envisaged it went
down sharply today and closed with a huge loss of points. Its most critical
points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and
as long as it holds these points the uptrend will be intact but today it
breached all these points and closed below it which is an extremely weak sign and if it
sustain below these points on the closing basis than it could be a potential
indication that it could slip into long term correction mode. Its other key points
are at 14628.29---14370.73---13818.20---13044---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first
two key points of 14628.29 &
14370.73 therefore it is already into short term correction mode. Please
note that sustained break below 13818.20
will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and
most importantly sustained break below 13044
on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will
potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will
further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.
The short term technical setup is tremendously weak and it is
already into real short term correction mode and looking at the intensity of
the fall today it seems that the correction is going to last for some time and
could be painful too , but the long term trend is still o.k.as of now. It has
decisively broken its recent bottom on the line and bar chart, it is decisively
below its short and some medium term moving averages and most importantly RSI
is showing deep negative divergence on the daily chart and it has achieved its second
target of below 14137(see my post for 27.1.2021)
also today and if it remains below its short term moving averages and critical
points for some more time then the it could go down to 13600 level or much below it, which may please be noted. The
overall short term technical parameters and indicators have turned bad and are
pointing towards that it may witness further fall from here provided it remains
below its short term moving averages; therefore it is suggested to avoid long
trade till clarity on correction completion emerges. Please note that it has to
move above its critical points and short and medium term moving averages to
regain some strength for moving up else it may drift downward off course with
intermittent pullback rallies. The
long term bias is still up as of now.
It is important to
mention here that if it does not break 13929.30 levels even in intraday and
closes above 14123.80( if 13929.30 is breached during intraday than 14123.80
figure will change downward ) and
sustain then chances are that it can give a pullback rally.
Moving down its critical support points
at 13818.20---13777.50---13145.85---13131.45---13044.
Moving up its critical resistance points
at 13981.75---13996.11---14024.85---14123.80---14310---14348.71---14370.73---14481---14567.24---14628.29----14653.45---14753.55---14771---14823---14890---14920---15022---15350---15471---15868.
It is into real short term correction mode now therefore for safe
traders long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion
emerges but short trade can be attempted. However, aggressive traders can try
long trade for the possible pullback rally gain if it moves and maintain above 14025 levels for some time or can buy if
it holds 13929 levels for some time.
Since it is in correction mode therefore long trade could be a risky affair. Therefore
it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy for now and sell after a
reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking
advantage of the down correction or otherwise but with extreme alertness
because the long term technical setup is not that bad as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY
1. Buy if it moves and maintain above 14024.85 for some time
with a stop loss of 13970. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky a
risky trade.
Or
Buy on decline if it holds 13929levels for some time with a
stop loss of 13870. It
is for aggressive traders and could be a risky a risky trade.
2. Sell if it does not move above 14024.85 in first
hour of trade with a stop loss of 14060.It could be a risky trade but worth
trying.
Or
Sell on the rise near or within the range of 14125---14140 with a
stop loss of 14165. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Or
Sell if it moves below 13929 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 13960. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop
loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT
STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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