Friday, 29 January 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR---1.2.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-30700.65--High-31111.95--Low—30254.55—Close-30565.50 on 29.1.2021

Support:30284/30202.10/30197.85/30165.65/29784.75/29441.30/29314/29149.90/29030.90/28923.10/28580.90/27703.30/27568.35/27088/26950/26643/26560/26441/26311.30/25998/25891/25723.55/25426.75.

Resistance:30893.65/30945.20/31264.05/31297.30/31510.25/31650.90/31725.85/32465.45/32561/32613.10/32718.95/32842.30/33043/33127/33379/33506/34130/34447/35079.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It exhibited wild swing on both the side today also but at the end closed on a positive note for the 2nd day in a row with a gain of 207.19 points. It is weak on short term technical parameter but looking at today’s movement it seems that the pullback rally is on. Please note that its key points for the year 2021 are 31265.05---31297.30---32465.45 & 32613.10 and it is way below these points now which is a terribly weak sign and if it does not bounce back above at least 31265.05---31297.30 points and sustain above it on the closing basis then chances are that it could slip into long term correction mode, which may please be noted. Its other key points are placed at 32561---31930---29907---28895(figures can change) It is  already way below its 1st & 2nd key points of 32561 & 31930 therefore it is in short term correction mode for sure and down move is expected to extend for few more days. Please note that sustained break below 29907 will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 28895 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend also, which may please be noted.  

 

The short term technical setup is extremely weak and it is already into short term correction and it seems that the correction is going to last for some time and could be painful too, but the long term trend is still o.k.as of now. Please note that overall short term technical indicators and parameters are terribly bad and indicate further fall ahead and most importantly RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the daily and weekly chart and if it remains below its short term moving averages and critical points for some more time then the it could go down to 29450 level or much below it also in coming days, which may please be noted. Therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade till clarity on correction completion emerges. Please note that it has to move above some of its critical points and short and medium term moving averages to regain some strength for moving up else it may drift downward off course with intermittent pullback rallies. The overall short term trend is down but the long term bias is still up as of now.

It is important to mention here that  it did close above 30432.20 (see my post for 29.1.2021) today therefore it seems that the pullback rally is on and it may last as long as it holds this mark but it may pick up some speed only if it moves and sustain above 30776 on the closing basis.  So the range for now is between 30432.20---30776 and if it moves and sustain above 30776 on the closing basis then the pullback rally can extend to 30892---31265---31637---31098---32211. In this context please note that the pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end or fizzle out abruptly at any of these points or earlier also, which may be kept in mind. Similarly sustained break 30432.20 on the closing basis can end this rally and drag it down to 30399---30231---30023---29907---29687---29303---29143---28894.95 levels, which may please be noted.

It is into short term correction mode now but in view of the above observation pullback rally is on therefore those who wish to take advantage of the pullback rally can try long trade if it holds 30433 level or if it moves and maintain above 30776 for some time. Since it is in correction mode therefore it is advised to avoid long trade for pullback gains instead it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy for now and sell after a reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down correction or otherwise but with extreme alertness because the long term technical setup is not that bad as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy if it moves and maintain above 30776 for some time with a stop loss of 30650.It could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near but not below 30433 with a stop loss of 30240.

2. Sell if it moves and maintains below 30240 for some time with a stop loss of 30450. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell on the rise near or within the range of 31300---31400 with a stop loss of 31475.It could be a risky trade but worth trying.  

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade. 

       

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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