Thursday, 3 September 2020

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR –4.9.2020

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-11566.20--High-11584.95—Low-11507.65---Close-11527.45, on 3.9.2020.

Support:11495.20/11447/11378/11325.85/11289.80.

Resistance: 11633/11694.85/11736/11761/11794.25/11825/11882.

Critical Points moving down: 11495.50---11447---11373.60---11341.40---11289.80.

Critical Points moving up: -11597---11633---11675—11761---11794.25---11840---11930.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It is still above its benchmark point of 11447 but well below its major rising trend line and made a lower top on the line chart today which is concerning, furthermore after the sharp decline on 31-8.2020 it has been moving in a short range for the last three days, therefore it has to decide in next 2-3 days which way it wants to move and in light of today’s lower top chances of moving down seems quite possible. Moving down it will find support at 11447---11373.60---11325.85---11289.80---11111.45, sustained break below 11447 can put the uptrend in danger and can slide to any of these levels or below. Similarly moving up it will face stiff resistance at 11597---11633---11675---11761---11794.25—11840, if it moves and sustain above 11840 on the closing basis then the up move may accelerate. Although it has given a weak signal today but overall it hangs in balance now and can move either way as of now.    

In view of the above observation long trade should be avoided on decline for the day and can only be tried  if it moves and maintains above 11535 for some time, but it could be a risky trade mind you. Since it has made lower top therefore short trade  can also be attempted on the reasonable rise near or within the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move or for taking  advantage of possible rally breakdown.

                                                                                                                                                                    It is imperative to mention here that the ongoing surge in the Indian as well in the rest of the world stock market for the last few months is not at all fundamentally backed but purely liquidity driven which is concerning. In light of this instead of caution it seems that there is an irrational exuberance in the stock market now which is even more concerning. Please take my word that at this juncture if investors and traders do not exercise extreme caution and alertness particularly in the long trade then they are surely going to be trapped in coming days. One cannot time the correction but it seems that it is around the corner.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy if it moves and maintain 11535 for some time with a stop loss of 11490. It could be a risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 11597---11675 with a stop loss of 11730.

Or

Sell if it fall below 11500 and maintain below it for some time with a stop loss of 11550. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it falls below 11390 and maintain below it for some time with a stop loss of 11460.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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