AN ELABORATE TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY FOR—3.10.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—54653.90---High—55406.75--Low—54582.55---Close—55347.95 on 1.10.2025.

 

Support:55149.30/54905.60/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55475.45/55547.35/55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a massive gain of 712.10 points. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility and it is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved but still slightly weak, because it is already into corrective mode for its earlier rise and still has lower top & bottom on the line chart, below short & long downtrend line and below its long term major rising trend-line which is drawn from the bottom of 16116.25 made on 24.3.2020 so all together it is still on a slightly weak footing and the on-going up-move may not last and can fizzle out abruptly. But the good thing is that it came out of corrective mode for its very recent rise, long term uptrend threat dissipated and it is above its almost all critical points of 55298.70---55149.30----54806---54653.90---54635.85----54606.25----54521.48---54467.35 also, therefore as long as it holds this range chances of continued up-move will be alive and it can extend, so it has to be seen in the 2-3 trading session whether it holds this range or not. Please note that break & sustained close below 55298.70---55149.30 will push it back into correction mode and may trigger fresh fall again, break & sustained close below 54806 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break & sustained close below 54653.90---54635.85 will be a strong alert sign for going down, break & sustained close below 54606.25----54521.48 may dampen the possibility of a continued up-move and finally break & sustained close be 54467.35 may end the possibility of an up-move in the year 2025. Moving down further its support point could be at 54312.12, break & sustained close below it can pull it down to 53483 levels but on the way down it may find support at 54174.06 and if it holds this point then the chances of resuming the up-move will be faintly alive. Please note that break & sustained close these points may trigger fresh fall.  

Moving down further its next critical & strong support point will be at 53561.75 & 53483.05 and if it does not hold these point on the closing basis then it may witness an accelerated fall and then the final support could be in the range of 53215---52919 (range will change daily), but break & sustained close below this range will trigger fresh fall and long term uptrend would also be in potential danger and then it may head for sharp fall may be with-in-between short relief rallies.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 55622----55666.35---55835.25---56024---56038.48----56075-----56098.70-----56650.10----56669-------56816-----56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again. Please note that if it moves above 55622---55666.35 & 55835.25 then it will get good strength to move-up further, if it moves above the range of  56024---56038.48---56098.70 and sustain then it will get good foothold and raise hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 56650.10 and sustain then it will get out of deep corrective mode for its earlier rise and if it moves above 56816 and sustain on the closing basis then it  may get back  into strong  up- momentum track and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40 or may go beyond it also. It is into correction mode for its recent & earlier gains, and long term trend is also threatened.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. It is in the oversold zone in the few important technical indicator and MACD, ADX,VM & ST is in the buy mode and RSI is with positive divergence, so it can give relief rally at times and may extend the up-move.

2. It is above all its short term moving average on the daily & almost all above on the weekly chart.

3. It is above few of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

4. It is above all its long terms moving average on the daily chart and the top average is placed at 54806(figure will change daily) for the day.

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. Few important technical indicators are negative and EV & PS are in sell mode, so it may drag it down further.

2. It is below one of its medium term moving averages on the weekly chart.

In view of the above now there is a possibility that the up-move can extend till it sustains above its important & key points or range of 55149.30----54806---54635.85---54606.25----54521.48---54467.35 on the closing basis. But please also note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the important indicators are negative MACD, EV, PS & VM are in the sell mode and RSI is showing negative divergence, therefore further fall looks quite likely in coming week’s .But the only silver lining is that it is in the neutral/oversold zone, so it may have short up-moves at times.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in the sell mode such as MACD & ST and it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI, but PS & ADX is in the buy mode, therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with tilt towards down-side as of now.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise but till it holds its key point of 54806---54467.35, therefore as long as it holds these points on the closing basis it will be buy on decline market.  But short trade can also be tried on the reasonable or sharp rise near critical resistance points or range or on the price breakdown with strict stop losses, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its most crucial 1^st & 2nd bottom of 55149.30 & 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 50939 for the month of September-2025, it is a very strong support point.

3. It is above its short pullback threshold point of 54174.06(figure may change), sustained close above it may keep the hope alive for further up-move.

4. The price action was positive today.

5. It is above its long & short term pullback threshold point of 54521.48 & 54606.25(figure may change), if it sustain above it on the closing basis then there will be hope that the up-move can extend.

6. It is above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

7. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 55298.70 (figure may change), sustained close above may help it to extend the up-move.

8. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 55091---54986--54940---54938---54933---54852(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point and also below its medium & deep correction threshold points 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10---55861 & 55629.14 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.

3. It is below its major first  major long term rising trend line which is placed at56300  for the month of October-2025, it is a very weak sign.

4. It is below its first major long term rising trend line which is placed at 56180 for the day, it is a very weak sign.

5. It still has lower top & bottom on the line chart.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near  55150 if it holds this point for some time then, with a stop loss of 54900 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55750—55835 with a stop loss of 56050.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.