AN ELABORATE TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTYFOR-15.9.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—25074.45—High—25139.45---Low---25038.05--Close---25114 on 12.9.2025

Support:25079.20/25001.95/24918.65/24882.30/24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24733.40/24694.35/24598.60/24589.15/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:25116.25/25136.20/25153.65/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up-gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process it almost filled the gap of the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 108.50 points. Please note that it has been rising for the last 8 days in a row and with each, rising day vulnerability of correction is increasing and now it has come to a point where correction looks inevitable in a day or two, so be alert and watchful. Furthermore the gap it created on 10.9.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 2-3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could come down to 24891.80, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but please note that it will fill the gap one day for sure.   It is important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 on the upside 25340.45) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved quite a lot, but it is still into different corrective mode for recent and earlier rise, therefore fear of going down is still there. But the positive thing is that it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart and it is well above its crucial points or range of  24966.05---24961.04---24904---24828-----24753.15 ----24742.88----24696(major rising trend-line for the month of Sept-2025)---24652----24566(major long term rising trend-line for the day, it will change daily)----24541---- 24494---24462.40(H&S pattern neckline)----24432.70---24426.85(some figure may change)  and as long as it holds this range on the closing basis chances of up-move will be alive. But please note that break & sustained close below the range of  24966.05---24961.04---24904--24828 will be an alert sign for going down, break & sustained close below24753.15 ----24742.88 may trigger fresh fall, break & sustained close below the range of 24696----24652 may deepen the fall, break & sustained close below 24566&24541(figure will change daily) will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained close below 24462.40 may witness a sharp fall and break & sustained close below 24432.70---24426.85 will weaken it further and can drag it down lower.

Moving down further it’s next immediate and important support point could be at 24370 & 24337 it could be a strong bounce back points ,but  break & sustained close below these points may witness an accelerated down-move.

Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  24006----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below 24006 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger, break & sustained close below the range of 23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 may trigger fresh fall and may also end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else  fall may continue. The long term uptrend is still intact but it is already into short, medium & deep correction mode now for its recent & earlier rise.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 25153.65---24222.40---25239.36—25260.22----25371----25387.01----25405----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35(some figures may change daily) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or rally may halt for a while. Please note that if it moves above 25153.65 & 25222.40 it may gain some speed for the up-move, if it moves above the range of 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of all corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, here please note that sustained close above 25371 will raise good hope for extending the up-move further for sure and there would be a distinct possibility that it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it fails to move above 25371 or sustain above it then the rally may fizzle out also. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - IT IS DECIESIVELY ABOVE ITS MOST CRITICAL POINT OF 24753.15 AND AS LONG AS IT HOLDS THIS POINT ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE POSSIBILILTY OF RESUMING THE STRONG UP-MOVE WILL BE GOOD. PLEASE NOTE THAT BREAK & SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW THIS CAN TRIGGER FRESH FALL AND CAN DARG IT DOWN.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN: - THIS PATTERN IS VISIBLE ON THE CHART AND ITS NECKLINE IS PLACED AT 24462.40. PLEASE NOTE THAT BREAK & SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW IT CAN DRAG IT DOWN AND THEN THE MAXIMUM DOWNSIDE TARGET COULD BE 23256 BUT IT MAY SLIP DOWN FURTHER ALSO OR MAY BOUNCE BACK EARLIER ALSO, THEREFORE PLEASE KEEPS A WATCH ON THE PRICE ACTION THEN. BUT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 25222.40 THEN THIS PATTERN MAY BE NEGATED.

FOR SEPTEMBER-2025:- IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 24432.70---24426.85---24370 & 24337.50 ON THE CLOSING BASIS TO KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE FOR A CONTINUED UP-MOVE IN THE MONTH, ELSE IT MAY DRIFT DOWN FURTHER.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS  AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT ON THE CHART;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. All the important technical indicators are positive now, MACD, EV, PS, ST, VM & ADX is in the buy mode, RSI is with positive divergence, so the up-rally could be there at times and up-move can extend.

2. It is above all its long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and the top average is placed at 24541(figure will change daily).

3. It is above all of its short term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart.

4. It is above almost all of its medium term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart.

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. It is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct at times.

2. Almost all the technical indicators on the weekly chart are negative and MACD, EV, PS, ADX is in the sell mode with huge negative divergence in RSI and also in the overbought zone, so it can correct in coming weeks.

In view of the above there is a possibility that it can swing both ways at time but with a tilt towards upside as it is way above its most critical point of 24753.15. But please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore fall cannot be ruled out in the coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the important technical indicators are negative MACD, EV, PS,VM & ADX   are in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, and it is in the overbought zone, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming week’s may be with- in between relief rallies.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD, EV & ST is in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with strong tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise but it moved above its recent key point of 24753.15, therefore as long as it holds this point on the closing basis it will be buy on decline market.  But short trade can also be tried on the reasonable or sharp rise near critical resistance points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 22944 for the month of September-2025, it could be an important & strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 24753.15& 23893.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.

4. It is above all  its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24895----24877----24824----24818---24812---24811(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move up further.

5. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart.

6. It is above its 1^st major long term rising trend-line, which is placed at 24696 for the month of September-2025. It is good sign for extension of the up-move.

7. It is above its recent major pullback threshold points of 24652(figure may change).

8. It is above its major long term rising trend drawn from the bottom of 7511 made on 24.3.2020, which is placed at 24566(figure will change and inch up every day).

9. It is above its very recent correction threshold point of 24966.05 & 24961.04; it is a positive sign and can help it to extend the up-move.

10. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as well as for earlier rise also as it is closed below all its correction threshold points of 25496.48---25448.47---25387.01---25260.22 & 25239.36  (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

3. It is way below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 26277.35.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 25040----24980 for some time, with a stop loss of 24880 or can buy on sharp decline near or within the range of 24753---24700 with a stop loss of 24640, for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25200---25220 with a stop loss of 25280 or can sell if it remains below 25154 for some time then with a stop loss of 25180.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com