A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—18.8.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—55102.55---High—55472.80--Low—55074.30---Close—55341.80 on 14.8.2025.

 

Support:55149.30/54905.60/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55475.45/55547.35/55475.45//55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 160.40 points. But it is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and it is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is  weak, it is into short, medium and deep correction mode for its recent rise and also into medium & deep  correction mode for its earlier rise, it is  below its multiple short term rising trend-lines, it is  below almost all its short term moving average on the daily &  weekly chart, also below most of the medium term moving averages on the daily chart, furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily & weekly charts, which is a weak indication, therefore fall in the coming days is very much likely. But the good thing as of now is that it has made higher bottom on the line & bar chart and most importantly it bounced back above  its major long term rising trend-line  which is drawn from the bottom of 16116.25 made on 24.3.2020 and is placed at 55310(this figure will change & inch up every day), which is a positive sign and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move can extend further but even if it breaks it then moving down it still has one critical support range of  55149---55043---54905, which could be a good bounce back range, but break & sustained close this range may trigger fresh fall.  

Moving down further its next critical support points or range could be 54467.35----54312.12----54245(some figures may change daily), which is yet again an important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025 and it may head down with an accelerated pace and finally if it moves below 54312.12 & 54245 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend will be threatened and it may slide down further and then it may find its next strong support at 53483.05 and please note that break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 55547.37----55549---55629.14----55897.15-----55961.95------56038.48---56098.70-------56650.10-----56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57084----57189.04---57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above 55547.37 & 55549 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will be above its pullback threshold, and the chances of a continued up-move may enhance a bit, if it moves above the range of  55897.15-----55961.95 and sustain then the up-move is most likely to extend further , if it moves above the range of  56038.48---56098.70 and sustain then it will get good foothold and raise good hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 56650.10 and sustain then it will get out of deep corrective mode for its recent rise, if it moves above the range of  56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57084 and sustain on the closing basis then it  may get back  into strong up- momentum track and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40 or may go beyond it also. It is still in a long term uptrend, but into deep correction mode for its recent rise.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - THE KEY POINTS FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST-2025 ARE 55547.35---55897.15 & 55961.95 IT HAS TO MOVE & REMAIN ABOVE THESE POINTS FOR AN UP-MOVE TO CONTINUE, ELSE IT WILL DRIFT DOWN. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE ON-GOING UP-MOVE SEEMS TO BE JUST A RELIEF RALLY ONLY AND MAY NOT LAST LONG AND  CAN FIZZLE OUT ABRUPTLY TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 55962 AND SUSTAIN.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. It is still above its long term moving average and the top average is placed at 54245(figure will change every day).

2. on few technical indicators it is in the oversold zone & RSI has given a positive divergence , so it may give relief rally at times.

3. Volatility method showing a buy signal.

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. below almost all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart.

2. below most of the medium term moving average on the daily chart.

3. Most of the important technical indicators are negative such as MACD, EV, PS,ST & ADX  is in the sell mode.

In view of the above there is a high probability that the down move may continue with in between relief rally at times. Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the indicators are negative and MACD, EV, PS, ST & RSI   are in the sell mode, therefore further fall looks quite likely in coming weeks .But the silver lining is that  RSI is with positive divergence and it is in the oversold zone , so it may have short up-moves at times.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with tilt towards down-side as of now.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode now therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 55550 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30 & 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

3. The price action was positive today.

4. It has made higher bottom on the line & bar chart but yet to make higher top, so watch out.

5. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 54812 & 50370 for the month of August-2025, these are the very strong support point.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and into medium   correction mode for its earlier rise as it closed below its threshold point of 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10---55629.14   (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.

3. It is below all (except for one)its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 55942---55786--55612---55454---55362---55294(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may continue with the down-move.

4. It is below its recent pullback threshold point of 55549(figure may change), if it sustain below it chances of up move may dampen.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 55300---55150 if it holds this range for some time but not below it with a stop loss of 55000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55640—55740 with a stop loss of 55840 or can sell if it moves below 55000 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55200.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.