A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-18.6.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24977.85—High—24982.05---Low---24813.30---Close---24853.40 on 17.6.2025.

Support:24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24494.45/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24854.80/24857.75/25892.60/25079.20/25116.25/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves in a range during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 93.10 points. It is also important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is still weak, it’s see-saw movement every other day is a matter of deep concern and possibly can drag it down sharply in coming times. It is below all its key lines such as rising upper channel, rising trend line, down trend line and into short & medium correction mode for its recent rise. But it is still above its make or break bottom of 24753.15, which is a positive sign. Therefore please note that if it manages to hold the range of 24841---24810----24753.15(some figures may change daily) on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend, but break & sustained close below the range of 24841---24810 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below 24753.15 may derail it from the up- momentum track and it may have an accelerated down slide.

Moving down it will find support at 24750.70----24669.70---24649.86----24494----24462----24401.20----24210(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that if it hold the range of 24669.70---24649.86  on the closing basis then the hope of an up rally will be alive, but break & sustained close below the range  will be an extreme alert sign & trigger point for going down, break & sustained close below  24494 & 24462 will be a potential trigger  for going down further, break & sustained close below  24401.20 will push it into deep correction mode for its recent rise and finally break & sustained close below  24210  will threaten the long term uptrend and may drag it down further, moving down  it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and may end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it may witness an accelerated fall. It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but it slipped into short term correction mode today.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24873-----24898.05---24918.75---24968----25043.04---25116.25----25203-----25207---25222----25261---25287----25371---25465---25996----26277.35. It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also, but if it moves above the range of  24873-----24898.05---24918.75---25043.04 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, if it moves above 25116.25 and sustain on the closing basis then it can extend the up-move, if it moves above the range of 25207---25222---25287 it will gain further strength to extend the up-move and finally if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also, else it may drift down again.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top today on the line chart; it fell below majority of its short term moving average on the daily chart but above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium & long term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up further. But almost all the important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and majorly in the sell mode such as MACD, EV,PS,and RSI is with huge negative divergence, in the overbought zone, so negative indicators are a huge concern. But only ADX & ST is in the buy mode , so it can help it to give a relief rally. Therefore please note that in totality it is giving mixed signal and likely to swing either way with a downward bias as of now. Furthermore earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into correction mode now, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments because it is sell on the rise market now. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

 TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV are in the buy mode, but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD & PS in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming   months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  NOW;-

It is still into corrective mode but above its key bottom of 24753.15 and as long as it holds this level on the closing basis it is buy on decline market. But short trade can also be tried on the rise near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23782 for the month of June-2025, it is a very good sign.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 24753.15 & 23893.70 sustained close above it will help to extend the up-move.

4. It is above its deep correction threshold points of 24401.42(figure may change), if it sustains above it, it is a positive sign for moving up.

5 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 2421 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

6. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24927---24913----24888----24873---24841--24810(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

7. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. All the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which is weak sign.

3 It is into short & medium correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 25043.04---24918.75----24898.05 (figure may change) sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24811---24753 if it holds this range for some time with a stop loss of 24710 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24980---25025 with a stop loss of 25080 or can sell if it moves below 24710 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24770. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com