A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-25.3.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23515.40—High—23708.75---Low---23433.50---Close---23658.35 on 24.3.2025.

Support:23644.80/23637.65/23537/23484.15/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up gap  and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 307.95 points. Please note that it has been vertically rising for the last 6 days in a row and with each rising day, vulnerability of correction is increasing and sometimes vertical rise may have vertical fall too, although it is showing good strength now for the continuation of the up move but it may correct any time soon, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap it created today, on 20.3.2025 and on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4--5 / 2—3 & 1 trading sessions respectively, which is technically possible then it can come down to 23402---22940 & 22577, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved a lot and it is showing good strength for the continuation of the up-move as it has moved above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that to keep the chances of continued up move alive in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, furthermore it is above its short & deep correction threshold point of 23379.75 & 23297.13(figure may change) and above few of its long term moving averages and the last one is placed at  23279(figure will change every day). Please note that as long as it holds the above points and range it may witness continuation of the up-move with- in –between short corrections. But break & sustained close below 23644.80 & 23637.65 will weaken the chance of an up-move, break & sustained close below 23379.75 & 23297.13 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and break & sustained close below 23279 may trigger fall again and can drag it down sharply and the up move may end for a while. Moving down further its major and most critical or make or break support range is between22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45, it could sharply bounce back from this range and may resume the broad up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall. The short & medium-term trend looks up but the long-term uptrend is still under threat as of now.    

Moving up the key resistance points would be at 23668----23788-----23893.70----23913-----23956----24075----24200(some figures may change daily). Please note that, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23956----24075----24200 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.

 HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:- The downside target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of 21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it could trigger fall again.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart both and on the bar chart it is making higher top & bottom, it is above all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and majorly above monthly chart, it is above all medium term moving average on the daily & majorly above weekly chart, but most importantly it is still majorly below  its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning for the long term uptrend as of now. Please note that almost all the important technical indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode and with huge positive divergence but in the deep overbought zone now, so, it may correct at times. But, it is emitting positive signal now therefore likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction and till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. Please note that since it had vertical rise for the last 6 days, therefore it can correct any moment, so keep an eye on the critical resistance points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart certain indicators has turned positive now, although it is in the sell mode in the few indicators, but there is  huge positive divergence and is in the oversold/neutral zone, so it can rally further from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks or  months . So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 23644.80 & 23637.65 and finally the range of 23380---23278 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. All the important indicators are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode and with positive divergence.

2. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 22400---22648 & 22983 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23029----22979----22848----22827---22762---22623(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may extend the up-move.

4. The long-term uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is majorly below its long-term moving averages but above few which is placed in the range of  22518---23279 (figure will change every day) for the day. This is slightly comforting sign for the continuation of the up move.

5. It crossed it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.

6. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 23297.13 &23379.75(figure may change).

7. It is decisively above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

8. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds  the range of 23645-----23638 for some time with a stop loss of 23550 or can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 23450-----23400 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23270 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23890---23940 with a stop loss of 24020. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com