A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—25.3.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—50982.70---High—51801.15---Low—50795.90---Close—51704.95 on 24.3.2025.

Support:51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a robust gain of 1111.40 points. Please note that it has been vertically rising for the last 8 days in a row and with each rising day,  vulnerability of correction is increasing and some times vertical rise may have vertical fall too, although it is showing good strength now for the continuation of the up move but it may correct any time soon, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap it created today and on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4—5 & 1 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 50672 & 48481.35 respectively, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved further and showing extraordinary strength for the continuation of the up-move, as it is above its correction threshold point of 50833.89(figure may change), it has decisively moved above its most critical points of 50841.90 & 50860.20, please note that to keep the chances of continued up move alive in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, furthermore it has also moved above all its long term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51286(figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that as long as it holds the above points it may witness continuation of the up-move with- in –between short corrections. But Break & sustained close below 51286 will be a warning sign, break & sustained close below 50860.20 & 50841.90 will weaken the chance of an up-move, break & sustained close below 50833.89 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 50369.40 will trigger fresh fall and finally break & sustained close below 49654.65 & 49594(this figure will change daily) may accelerate the fall and the up move may end for a while.  The short, medium and long term trend is up as of now. 

 Similarly moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 51883----52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46, it could correct at any of these points and then rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest one of its top of 53888.30 and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart both, it is above all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is a huge positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode and with huge positive divergence but in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it may correct at times. But, it is emitting positive signal therefore, likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction & till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. Please note that since it had vertical rise for the last 8 days, therefore it can correct any moment, so keep an eye on the critical resistance points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart certain indicators has turned positive now, although it is in the sell mode in the few indicators, but there is  huge positive divergence and is in the oversold/neutral zone, so it can rally further from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks or  months . So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds 50860.20---50841.90 & 50833.89 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode with huge positive divergence.

2. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49796--49699--49285---49192---49160----48861(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.

3. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48396.47---49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It crossed it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.

5. It is above its most crucial bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above these on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.

6. It is above all its   long-term moving averages now which is in the range of 51286---49594 (the range will change every day). Please note that as long as it holds 51286 chances of a continued up move will be good.

7. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 49971.34(figure may change).

8. It is decisively above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

9. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 51455----51300 but not below it with a stop loss of 51100 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52450—52550 with a stop loss of 52700. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.