CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49947.60---High—50155.30---Low—49771.65---Close—50062.85 on 20.3.2025.
Support:49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 360.25 points. Please note that it has been vertically rising for the last 6 days in a row and with each rising day, vulnerability of correction will increase, although it is showing good strength now for the continuation of the up move but it may correct any time, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap it created on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2-3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48481.35, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has improved further and showing good strength now for the continuation of the up-move as today it closed just above its another important resistance point of 50054, if it holds this point on the closing basis then it is likely to hit 50640+ levels in coming days. Furthermore it is already well above its most critical /make or break bottom of 49654.65 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure, break & sustained close below it could be a warning signal for down move to start again and moving down its next important support points could be at 49576.45---49300 & 49162.65(figures may change), break below 49576.45 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and break below 49300 & 49162.65 will weaken the chances of a continued up-move. Moving down further the next support range could be 48866—48697---48674 (figures will change every day) it could be a good bounce back range, but break below this range may trigger fresh fall and then it may find support at 48478.60---48396.47---48334.70---48078.70, break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and moving down further its immediate last critical support points would be at 47898.35---47844.15--- 47756 & 47745, and this is a very strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time period can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that on the daily chart it is looking good for a continued up-move as of now, but it is still weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters are also weak, therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term perspective and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short term bias is up, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened and in jeopardy as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50196----50220----50369.40----50529----50616----50841.90---50860.20----50943-----51280(some figure will change daily).
Please note that, if it moves above 50369.40
and sustain on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further
for sure, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue
in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50943-----51280 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term
uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for
sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the
up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53114.46----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53114.46
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart
both, it has moved above all its short term moving average on the daily chart,
almost all on the weekly & monthly chart also , it is above almost all
medium term moving average on the daily chart, but still below few on weekly
chart, and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average
except for two on the daily chart, which is a positive sign but still there is a threat to the long term uptrend as of now
and it is concerning. Please note that almost all the important technical
indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode and with huge positive
divergence but in the overbought zone
now, so, it may correct at times. Therefore, broadly it is emitting positive signal now and it
can surprise you on the upside in coming times, but mind you as of now it is a
pullback rally only and can fizzle out abruptly also, so be cautious and
alertly play this rally and keep an eye on the critical points and price action
for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds 49654.65 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy
mode with huge positive divergence.
2. It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 48956--48932--48866---48697---48691----48674(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.
3. It is
above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48396.47---49162.65----49300
(figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to
extend the up-move.
4. It crossed
it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.
5. It is above
its most crucial bottom of 49654.65, if it
sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend for
sure.
6. The long-term
uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is below almost all its long-term moving
averages except for two which are placed
at 49889 & 49579 (figure will
change every day). This is slightly comforting sign for the continuation of
the up move.
7. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly
chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and
sell mode MACD.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73---- (figure may change) and
if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 49981.52--- 49368.02----49310.95----48999.71---45416.49 (figure may
change)
4. It is in
the overbought zone, so it may correct.
5. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 49850----49775 but not below it with a stop loss of 49550 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective
market could be a risky bet.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50370—50450 with
a stop loss of 50600. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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