CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48437.55---High—48574.50---Low—48078.70---Close—48344.70 on 28.2.2025.
Support:48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:48525.60/48636.45/48734.35/48906.05/48972.55/49057.40/49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 399.10 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4--5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 48628, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup on the daily
chart is weak , as it is below all its short, medium & long term moving
averages on the daily chart and some with negative crossover , furthermore it is below its short , medium
& long pullback threshold points. So,
all together it is exhibiting weak undertone, and therefore further fall looks
inevitable in the coming days. However if it holds 48344.70 & 48078.70
on the closing basis chances of an up-move will be alive in the month of March-2025, else it will slide down and finally it will find support points at 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756, and this is a very strong bounce back
range. But please note that break
& sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 for a longer time period can drag
it down to the range of 46437---46077 and
sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. Please note that looking at the overall
chart setup and technical parameters on the weekly & monthly chart, it is
likely to hit 44500 or lower in
coming times as of now. It is important to mention here that as of
now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term and
may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to
reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down
and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 48683.58---49270.57----49408---49654.65----49755---49981.52-----50069----50390----50517----50618----50841.90---50860.20----50952---51166-----51290(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above its pullback
threshold range of 48683.58---49270.57----49408(figures may change) and sustain
on the closing basis, then it will enhance the chances of moving-up further, if
it moves above 49654.65 and sustain
on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold which may help it to
build up base for extending the up-move, if it moves above 49755 and sustain then it may strengthen further, if it moves above
49981.52 then it will get out of
recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue
in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50952---51166-----51290 and sustain on the closing basis then the
long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the
up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation
of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47
& 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart, it is
below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and
majorly below on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving
average on the daily chart & majorly below
on the weekly chart also, and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore all the seven
important technical indicators are negative now with majorly in the sell mode, but the only comforting thing is that is in
the oversold zone, so, it may rally at times but here please note that it can
remain in the oversold zone for a long time in a weak market and a meaningful relief
rally may not happen, therefore, broadly
it is emitting weak signal, so, further fall looks inevitable in coming times with
in between short relief rally at times. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional
indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below all its pullback threshold point therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the oversold zone, please note that it can remain in oversold zone in a weak
market.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly
chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and
sell mode MACD.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49981.52---49368.02 (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points
then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold
points are 45416.49 (figure may change)
4. Almost
all out of seven important technical indicators are negative with major
indicators in the sell mode.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
6. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
7. It is below
its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
8 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 49384---49149---49137---48969-----48913----48824(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down-move.
9. It is
below its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48683.58---49270.57----49408
(figure may change), sustained close below these points can take it down
further.
10. It has
lower top & bottom on the line chart.
11. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 48200---48100 if it holds this range
for some time then with a stop loss of 48000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48740—48840 with
a stop loss of 49000 or can sell if it moves below 48070 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 48270. It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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