A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.1.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49421.50--High—49483.15--Low—48631.20--Close—48734.15 on 10.1.2025.

 

Support:48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49057.40/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note but after that it did not went much higher and thereafter it steadily declined during the day and finally closed near the low of the day with a big loss of 769.35 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into deep corrective mode and the overall chart setup is very weak. Furthermore it is below almost all its key support points; it is way below all its long term moving averages now therefore deeply jeopardizing the long term uptrend and most importantly as it is below its last crucial bottom of 49654.65 and if it sustain below it for a longer period of time then the downside correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both and it will seek much lower levels and the possible support points could be at 48636---48450---48284---47756(some figure may change), it could bounce back from any of these points but break & sustained close below 47756 can drag it down to 46100 or lover. Please note that to give a ray of hope for an up-move it has to move above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis.  The short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49654.65---50008.53---50147---50429---50451---50751---50795---50841.90---50860.20----51082---51121---51436----51786(some figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 49654.65 it will gain a foothold to move up, if it moves above 50008.53and sustain on the closing basis then it may give a good signal for moving up further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an extended up move in the year 2025 and if it moves above 51082---51121---51436 & 51786 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52665 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53300.12---53331.55----53370.43----53500.30 and sustain on the closing basis.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, which is a very weak sign, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and below few on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and maximum indicators are in the sell mode with negative divergence , but the comforting thing is that it is in the oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not likely to sustain and may fail and then it may resume the down move again. It is also important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it has triggered sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in slight oversold zone also. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 49655 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. NIL

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49201.72--- (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51214----51159----50905-----50846-----50569---50367----50186---49995(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

5. All the seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal, distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.

6. It is below its short pullback threshold point of 49349.01(figure may change), sustained close below this point may take it down.

7. The long term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long term moving averages.

8. Its below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

9. It is below its long pullback threshold point of 50008.53(figure may change), sustained close below this point will help it to extend down move.

10. It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

11. It has broken its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

12. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 48631 if it holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 48500 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49250—49350 with a stop loss of 49550 or can sell if it moves below 48630 with a stop loss of 48800.It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.