A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-31.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23796.90—High—23915.35---Low---23599.30---Close-23644.90 on 30.12.2024.

Support:23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a flat to negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 168.50 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall chart setup is weak. The on-going up move is likely to end as it closed below its recent bottom of 23727.65 on the line chart but it will give confirmation of the end of up-move once it closes below 23587.50 therefore how it finally culminate has to be seen in the next few trading sessions. It is below almost all its recent important & key support points on the chart and the long term uptrend is already severely threatened, which is highly concerning, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days. However moving down from here the forthcoming strong support points could be at  23582-----23579----23537.35 and break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then the last ray of hope for the strong bounce back is in the range of 23350.40-----23263.15, it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall and then it will find strong support in the range of 22794.70----22768.40 and it is needless to mention here that break & sustained close below this range can drag it down to much lower levels, which may please be noted. The short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is severely threatened. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23893.70---23974.50----23991----24141---24212----24330---24460---24481.42(some figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a strong foothold to move up, if it moves above 23974.50 and sustain on the closing basis then it will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend and if it moves above the range of 24212---24481.42 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into strong up-momentum track only if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15 & 24857.75 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-

It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below 23893.70.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and below few averages on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it is almost below all its long term moving average on the daily chart thereby severely threatening the long term uptrend which is a very concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and it has triggered the sell mode in the maximum indicators and the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not likely to sustain and may fail and it may resume the down move again until and unless it closes above 23893.70 and sustain.  It is also important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

 TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought/ neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-

It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis, but long trade can also be tried on decline near critical support points for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it has been severely threatened.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.     

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39-----23659.18--- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.

5. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

6. It is below its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

7. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24261----24176----24085----24059----23944----23914 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.

8. It is below few long terms moving average now 24460----24328----24210---23991---23868---23820----23749-----23694-and the other long term moving average is ----23579, please note that sustained close below these points will weaken it and will drag it down.

9. It is below its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

10. It  has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

11. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 23587----23540 for some time with a stop loss of 23480 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23810—23850 with a stop loss of 23920 or can sell if it moves below 23640 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23730. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com