A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-26.11.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24253.55—High—24351.55---Low---24135.45---Close----24221.90 on 25.11.2024.

Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened with a huge up-gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a handsome gain of 314.65 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4-5 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 23956 levels, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap someday, which may please be noted.

It had a strong up-move today and if it holds the range of 24156---24022(figure will change daily) on the closing basis it will show some strength for the continuation of the up-move but even if it break this range but holds 23974.50 & 23893.70 on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive and the broad upside target could 24237----24283----24340---24415---24538----24770----25126---25566---25675, please note that it may correct at any of these point and then may resume the up-move again. But break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back in the deep corrective mode again and may have sharp down move. It is important to mention here that the long term uptrend is still under threat and it will only dissipate once it moves above 24345(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it will pick up strong up momentum again and may scale a new high.

The overall chart setup is still weak, despite today’s sharp up-move; it is already into the deep correction mode for earlier rise, it bounced back above all its short term moving average  but still below almost all medium term moving averages on the daily chart, also below almost all short & few medium term moving averages on the weekly chart & below some short term moving average on the monthly chart also and most importantly it is still below one long terms moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is still under threat, which is concerning. However almost all the important technical indicators have turned positive today with buy mode and huge positive divergence but inching towards overbought zone, so all together indicators are giving positive signals, therefore it is likely to move ahead further in coming days provided it holds the key points as mentioned above. The medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is still under threat and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 24345(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 23974.50 & 23893.70 on the closing basis then it will make sure that the up-move can extend further for sure, if it moves above 24345 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will end the long term uptrend threat and will immensely help to extend the up-move and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too. But to gain a strong foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to move above the range of 24531---24591---24718----24923(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25566 & 25675(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain extraordinary strength and will get into the good up momentum track and then it can retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24210----24091---23974.50---23893.70----23722-----23671----23605----23549------23486------23435-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 23974.50 may end the possibility of an up-move for the time being, break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back into big correction mode if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23549---23435(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23549---23435 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.  

BUY ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINT & KEY BOTTOM;-

It is into the deep correction mode but above its pullback threshold point of 23974.50 and key bottom of 23893.70 therefore buy on decline is suggested at appropriate support points till it holds the above points. But sell trade can also be tried after reasonable rise in the appropriate range for intraday corrective gains. So both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but it is under threat.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. One out of seven important technical indicators suggests oversold condition, so it may have a relief rally anytime soon and it did gave strong one today.

4. It has made higher top on the line & bar chart both.

5. The price action was positive today.

6. It is above its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

7. It is above all  its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24156----24038----24022----23891----23848---23736 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are also negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34-- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24047.39---- 23659.18--- 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. The long term uptrend is still under threat as it is below its important threshold point of 24345(figure will change daily) on the daily chart.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24167---24135 with a stop loss of 24070 or if it moves above 24255 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24190 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24420—24460 with a stop loss of 24540 or can sell if it moves below 24130 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24230.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com