A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-15.10.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25023.45--High-25159.75—Low---25017.20---Close-25127.95 on 14.10.2024.

Support:25078.30/24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24472.80/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.

Resistance:25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25847.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 163.70 points. The 0verall chart setup is still weak, it is already into the deep correction mode, it is still below almost all its short term moving averages and below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart also and almost all the important technical indicators are negative now, therefore all developments together indicates that further fall looks inevitable in coming days with in between relief rallies.

The good point is that it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart, it closed above its key point of 25058, above its pullback threshold point of 25067.94(figure may change)  and its correction threshold point of 25106.68(figure may change) today, which is a positive sign for moving up further. Please note that if it sustains above 25067.94 levels on the closing basis then the broad upside target could be 25299---25486----25673----25904---25951, it may correct at any of these points then either it may resume the up move or up move may fizzle out for good, but if it moves above 25951 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. But break & close below 25067.94 & 25058 can drag it down to lower levels.

Please note that to gain a strong foothold it has to move above the range of 25180----25273----25341----25471(figure may change) and sustain  on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25714.81 & 25917.64(figure may change)  and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain good strength for the continuation of the up move and it will get into the good up momentum track if it moves above 26043.29 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but  on the daily chart  it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a short rally any time and it started today, but this relief rally will sustain or not has to be seen in the next 1-2 trading sessions  because the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the daily& weekly chart and sell  mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart, so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it  may slide further may be with a in between relief rally at times. It is in the long term uptrend but the short & medium term bias is bearish as of now.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25106.68----25067.94----25058----24753.15----25521.63-----24456-----24370-----24301-----24101-----24099.70-----24074.20----24047.39-----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep correction mode, break & close below 25106.68 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 25067.94 & 25058 may trigger fresh fall and can drag it down to 24753.15 and most importantly break & sustained close below 24753.15 may accelerate the down move further and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it further. and break and sustain close below 24370 can drag it down to 23893.and break and sustained close below 24101 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally break & sustained close below 23893.70 and may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this point on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is into the correction mode therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP CORRECTION MODE, BUT LONG TRADE CAN BE TRIED IF IT HOLDS 25067.94 & 25058 LEVELS (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW, BUT SHORT TERM BIAS IS BEARISH AS OF NOW.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart.

4. It is above its pullback threshold point of 25067.94(figure may change).

5 The price action was positive today. 

6. One out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating oversold condition.                  

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Six out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, sell mode and negative divergence, few indicators on the weekly chart also indicates overbought condition and negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought condition.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 25106.68 ----25098.32 -----25064.27-----24521.63---24047.39----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 25056---25175----25180----25273----25341----25471 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25091----25058 with a stop loss of 24980 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25240—25270 with a stop loss of 25330. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com