A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-4.9.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25313.40--High-25321.70—Low---25235.80---Close-25279.85 on 3.9.2024.

Support:25078.30/24999.75/24964.65/24854.80/24771.65/24472.80/24401/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:25333.65/25337/25375/25473/25494/25551/25671/25868/25967/26118/26263.

OVERALL, VIEW: --  

It opened on a positive note and thereafter it moved down and traded in a range and finally ended the day flat with a meager gain of 1.15 points. It is exhibiting extraordinary strength for going up  but the concern is that it has been vertically moving up for the last 14 days which makes it highly vulnerable for a correction and with each rising day, vulnerability increases, so at this juncture correction looks inevitable and can happen anytime soon, so be watchful and alert. Please note that it would be good for it to correct for a while and then move up again, it will provide good strength to it for the continuation of the up move, else straight vertical rise may have vertical fall too in coming days. The trend is up.

The technical setup is very good, it is above all its short- medium and long term moving averages and few important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, which is an extremely good sign for the continuation of the up move. Please note that to keep the up momentum going in the month of September--2024 it has to maintain above 25235.90 & 25268.35 on the closing basis, else it may move sideways or drift down. On the down move if it manages to hold the range of 25078.30---25042.44---24993.82---24964.65(very important range, figures may change) it can bounce back and may resume the up move again, but break below this range will push it into corrective mode and finally if it moves below the range of 24901---24845---24682(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis then it may trigger fresh and may be bigger fall..

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart little while ago and now again it is in the overbought territory and most importantly negative divergence on the daily and weekly chart is concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down after this up move is over. So be watchful and alert.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25137----25078.30----25045----25042.44----24993.82----24901----24886.29----24854.80---24845----24841.38----24682----24626------24486------24346---24269.80---24235.75----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) break below the range of 25078.30---25042.44---24993.82---24964.65 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and thereafter break below each point will weaken it, and break and sustained close below of 24682 may trigger fresh fall, break and close below the range of 24327.41---24293.30----24099.70-----24074.20 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below the range of 23992.70---23985.80----23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this range then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is out of all corrective mode therefore it is buying on decline market now in general, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is out of corrective mode therefore sell trade could be a slightly risky affair therefore one should be extra alert in the short trade.

NOTE:-IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 25268.35 & 25235.90, THEN THE UP MOVE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart on the daily chart.

4. Four out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 25137---25046----25043----24901----24845----24682(figure will change every day), if it sustains above it then it is a strong sign for the continuation of the up-move.

6. The price action was mixed today.

7. It is out of all correction modes and the important correction threshold points are 25042.44 24993.82----24377.33 & 24343.33 (figure may change) close below the threshold points is a weak sign.

8. It is in the new zone.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Three out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which indicate overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25268---25235 with a stop loss of 25185 or can buy if it moves above 25322 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25250 for possible intraday gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25370--25400 with a stop loss of 25460 or can sell if it moves below 25235 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25310. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com