CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51200.40--High—51380.05--Low—50447.30---Close—50576.85
on 6.9.2024.
Support:50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50938.70/51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves
but below the yesterdays low during the day and finally ended the day with a loss
of 896.20
points. The technical
setup has got a terrible jolt with today’s movement and it has turned very weak.
Furthermore it has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, in
fact it broke several bottom on the line chart after a long time, it has fallen
below all its short term moving averages
and below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart, below few short
term moving averages on the weekly chart also and few important technical
indicators have also turned negative, so all together it is looking pretty weak
now, therefore likely to go down further from here provided it does not stage a
sharp bounce back in next 2-3
trading sessions and moves above few critical points as mentioned below. The only
silver lining here is that it is still above its pullback threshold point of 50529(it broke it intraday) and if it
manages to hold this level then there is a hope that it could still bounce
back, else it will drift down. Please note that to get back the required strength
to move up again smartly it has to move above the range of 51317---51266---51255---51153---51095---51080---50878(figures will
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, and to keep the up momentum
going in the month of September-2024
it has to move above 51351---51579.50----51639.66 and sustain on the
closing basis and for an accelerated up move it has to move above 51877.15 and sustain on the closing basis.
It was already into correction
mode for its earlier rise and today it slipped into correction mode for its
recent rise ( it will get out of all
corrective mode if it closes above 51639.66 and sustain); furthermore, the
volatility is still there, which is not good sign for a steady market and the
overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also there but it
neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, but other indicators turned weak
and most importantly negative divergence appeared on the daily, weekly &
monthly chart indicating that it could slip down to 50368 & 48950 levels in coming days, weeks & months,
therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly
& monthly chart is pointing that it is could head down further from here, if it does not stage sharp
bounce back in a shortest possible time.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 50702----50950---50997----51069----51133----51138-----51255.57----51351----51579.50---51639.66----51706----51803----51877.15----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it
moves above 51351----51579.50---51639.66----51877.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may
accelerate the up move and thereafter close
above each point will strengthen the up move and finally if it moves above 52618
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 53357.70
or may go beyond it also and hit a new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50529---50455---50149—--50074-----49901---49891----49803----49717.78----49654------49530----49498-----49173----48858.75----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break and close below 50529 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter
break below each point will weaken the setup further. Please note that the range of 49882----49865----49790----49654---49482--49173
is a very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below
this range will trigger fresh fall and will also threaten the long term uptrend and
finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25
&48203.45
will trigger fresh fall again and that could be sharp in the intensity and then
the correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both. Last but not the least break and close
below 47533.83 can drag
it down to 46000 levels, which may please be noted.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in
general till it comes out of the
correction mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the
price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep
correction mode therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore
one should be extra alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE LEVEL OF 50529 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT CAN
STILL BOUNCE BACK, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS INTACT
AS OF NOW. BUT IT IS IN THE CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.
FOR
SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE TILL IT GETS OUT OF CORRECTION
MODE OR GIVES A VISIBLE SIGN OF CORRECTION COMPLETION.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49891will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Three out of seven indicators are positive now.
4. It is still
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is
already into deep correction mode now as it is below its important correction
threshold point of 51639.66-----51255.57-----51250.53----50702.16 (figure may change), the other correction threshold points
are 49877.99---48353.95
& 44568.72 and it is above these points, sustained close below the threshold points is a weak
sign.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Four out
of seven important indicators is negative on the daily chart, indicating
overbought condition and negative divergence.
5. Now it is
making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, if has broker
several bottom on the line chart in a single day after a long time.
6. It is below
all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for today is between 51317---51266---51255----51153----51095----51080---50878(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it
down..
7 The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried near or within the range of 50529---50450 if it hold this range for some time with a stop loss of 50250 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective
market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50950---51100 with
a stop loss of 51300 or can sell if it moves below 50447 with a stop loss of 50625 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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