CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51218.55--High—51420.15--Low—50947.70---Close—51010
on 11.9.2024.
Support:50938.70/50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51133.20/51138.90/51636.75/51750.10/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss/gain of 262.30
points. The technical
setup is weak. Furthermore it is still making lower top & bottom on the
line & bar chart, in fact it broke several bottom on the line chart at one
go after a long time, it is below almost all its short term moving averages and
below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and almost all
important technical indicators are also negative, so all together it is looking
weak now, therefore likely to go down provided it does not stage a sharp bounce
back and move above its critical points and sustain on the closing basis, it
did stage a pullback in the last two days, but could not sustain. The only
silver lining here is that it is still well above it pullback threshold points
of 50695 & 50529(figure may change) and as long as it holds these points the hope of up move will be alive. But
to get the required strength for smartly and steadily moving up it has to move
above the range of 51019---51093—51141---51158---51187---51207---51249(figure
will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis. It is important to
mention here that to keep the up momentum going in the month of September-2024 it has to move above 51351---51579.50----51639.66 and sustain on the closing basis and for an
accelerated up move it has to move above 51877.15
and sustain on the closing basis.
It is still into deep correction
mode for its earlier rise and today slipped into correction mode for its recent
rise ( it will get out of corrective mode if it closes above 51639.66
and sustain); furthermore, the volatility is still there, which is not good
sign for a steady market and the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly
chart is also there but it neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, but
other indicators turned weak and most importantly negative divergence appeared
on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, therefore, all indication together
based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing
that it is could head down further from here in coming days, provided it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a
shortest possible time and closes above some critical resistance points as
mentioned above.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 51069----51133----51138-----51255.57----51351----51579.50---51639.66----51706----51803----51877.15----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it
moves above 51351----51579.50---51639.66----51877.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may
accelerate the up move and thereafter close
above each point will strengthen the up move and finally if it moves above 52618
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 53357.70
or may go beyond it also and hit a new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51003---50997----50950---50938----50702----50695.25----50529---50455---50149—--50074-----49967---49951----49865----49717.78----49654------49530----49557-----49217----48858.75----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change), It
is already into correction mode, but it can bounce back from any of these
points, but break and close below 50938
may trigger fall, break and close below 50695.25 & 50529 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break below each point
will weaken the setup further. Please
note that the range of 49967----49951----49865----49654---49557—49217(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but
sustained break and close below the range of 49967----49951----49865 will
threaten the long term uptrend and break and close below the range of 49654---49557—49217
will trigger fresh fall, and finally sustained break and close below the
range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall again and that
could be sharp in the intensity and the
correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both. Last but not the least break and close
below 47533.83 can drag
it down to 46000 levels, which may please be noted.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in
general till it comes out of the
correction mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the
price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep
correction mode therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore
one should be extra alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 51003
& 50938 AND THEN 50695 & 50529---(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON
THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE, ELSE IT MAY START
TO DRIFT DOWN AGAIN. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT IT IS IN
THE CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49967will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out of seven indicators are positive now.
4. It is still
above its pullback threshold point of 50695.25 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5 The price action was mixed today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is
already into deep correction mode now as it is below its important correction
threshold point of 51639.66----51255.57 -----51250.53 (figure may change), the other correction threshold points are 51255.57 -----51250.53-----50702.16----49877.99---48353.95
& 44568.72 and it is above these points, sustained close below the threshold points is a weak
sign.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Five out
of seven important indicators is negative on the daily chart, indicating
overbought condition and negative divergence.
5. It is still
making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, if has broker
several bottom on the line chart in a single day after a long time.
6. It is almost
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51249---51187---51158----51141----51093----51003(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can extend
the down move.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50695----50580 with a stop loss of 50430 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51400---51500 with
a stop loss of 51650 or can sell if it moves below 50500 with a stop loss of 50720 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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