CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51479.75--High—51750.10--Low—51240.05---Close—51689.10
on 3.9.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/50938.70//50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 249.55 points. The technical setup has improved and the good point is that it has closed above one of its most important and key point of 51639.66 and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it can extend the up move and if it moves above 51877.15 and sustain on the closing basis then the up move is expected to accelerate. Please note that even if it breaks 51639.66 and moving down, holds the point of 51579.50 & 51351 it can still bounce back, but sustained break below these points can trigger down move, and finally if it breaks and close below the range of 51255.57---51180---51143----51065---50990---50707(figure may change) fall may accelerate.
It is important to mention here that although it is looking
good for the continuation of the up on the daily chart, but it is still into
correction mode for its recent rise and also into correction for the earlier
rise; furthermore, some important technical indicators are negative on the
weekly & monthly chart, and most importantly the volatility is still there
and the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also there but
it neutralized on the daily chart little while ago but now again it is in the
overbought territory, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators
on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it is overbought and
could head down in coming days. So be watchful and alert.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 51706----51803----51877.15----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves
above 51877.15 and sustain on the
closing basis then it may accelerate the up move and thereafter closing above each point will
strengthen the up move and finally if it moves above 52618 and sustain
on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 53357.70
or may go beyond it also and hit a new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 51639.66----51314----51309---51202----51180-----51143---51138----51133-----51070-----51065---51036----50990----50997---50938----50811----50743-----50707----50681------50529---50324---50289—--49828---49807----49717.78----49737-----49659----49655------49530----49422---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break and close below 51639.66 will be an alert sign, break
and close below 50938 & 50707
may accelerate the fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken the
setup further. Please note that the
range of 49828----49807----49737----49654---49422 is a very strong bounce back
support range, but sustained break and close below this range will trigger
fresh fall and will also
threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break and close below
the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall again and that
could be sharp in the intensity and then the correction could be more painful
time-wise and price-wise both.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE LEVEL OF 51639.66 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP
MOVE CAN EXTEND, CLOSE BELOW THIS MARK MAY BE AN ALERT SIGN FOR GOING DOWN. THE
LONG-TERM UPTREND IS STILL INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT IN SHORT TERM IT IS IN THE CORRECTIVE
MODE.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49807 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Six out of seven indicators are positive now, pointing that it could extend
the up move and indicate that it could head to 51600
levels (achieved today) now it could head to 52280 or more as of now.
4. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5. It is
making higher top & bottom on the line after a long time & higher top
on the bar chart.
6. It is
above most of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51309---51202----51180----51065----50990---50707(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
7 The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is
already into deep correction mode now as it is below almost all its important
correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20
& 51853.33 (figure may change), the other correction threshold points
are 51639.66----51255.57-----51250.53-----50772.53---50702.16
& 49877.99, sustained close below the threshold points is a weak sign.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. One out
of seven important indicators is negative on the daily chart, indicating
overbought condition.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 51639----51500 for some time with a stop loss of 51340 or can buy if it moves above 51815 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 51550 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair
but can be tried near critical support
points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52100---52200 with
a stop loss of 52350 or can sell if it moves below 51340 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 51480 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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