A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-9.8.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24248.55--High-24340.50—Low24079.70---Close-24117 on 8.8.2024.

Support:24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:24141.80/24168.85/24210.80/24461.05/24854.80/24999.75/25078.30/25152/25337/25494/25551/26118.

OVERALL VIEW: --

After yesterdays good rise today it opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day but finally ended the day with a loss of 180.50 points, so the weakness still persist and after staying just one day above its pullback threshold points of 24173.27 & 24182.24 it fell below it today, which shows gross weakness in it and if it sustains below it down move may continue. The gap it created on 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap of 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 in the next 1 & 1-2 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come up to 24686.85 & 24956.40, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being but one day if will fill the gap for sure, which please keep in mind. The technical setup is weak, furthermore the volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it seems that it can move in a range for some time and then may go down further may be with in-between short relief rallies. It is already into deep correction mode for its recent rise, furthermore it is also below all its short term moving averages and few medium term moving averages on the daily chart. Furthermore almost all important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, pointing that the down move is likely to continue. Moving down from here it may find good support at 24074---23992.70---23985.80----24893.70----23757----23695----23667.10---23627.90---23450---23350---23338.70---23284----23180---23110.80---22732---22178----22040, it may bounce back from any of these points, but break and close below 23992.70 & 23985.80 may trigger fresh fall, break and close below 23893.70 will weaken it  and break and close below the range of 23695---23667.10 & 23627.90 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it further..

Similarly moving up its broad resistance points would be at 24173.27---24182.24---24346---24486—24596-----24626-----24799----24841.38----24854.80(some figure may change, for in between resistance points see the table on the up side), it may correct at any of these points but if it moves above 24173.27 & 24182.24 and sustain on the closing basis then there will be some hope that it can extend the up move, else down move may continue if it moves above 24596 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again and finally if it moves above 24854.80 and sustain on the closing basis, then it could retest its all-time high of 25078.30 or may go beyond it also. Please note that sustained close below 24182.24 will make the on-going correction more painful price-wise & time-wise both.

Since it is into correction mode therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode therefore buy trade could be a risky affair.

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE HOPE OF UP MOVE ALIVE IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 24173.27 & 24182.24 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE AND BREAK BELOW 23992.65---23985 & 23893.70 MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND, BUT IN SHORT TERM CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.  

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Two out of seven indicators on the daily chart looks slightly oversold, therefore a short up move may happen.

WEAKNESS:-.

1. Five out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. It is into deep correction mode now as it is below  all its correction threshold point of 24873.57----24841.33----24670.42----24636.50 &24182.24 (figures may change). Please note that sustained close below 24182.24 will make the correction deeper and painful.

5. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 24567----24542----24510----24408---24403(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can deepen the down move.

6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart.

7. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 24182.24; however aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 23992---23985 with a stop loss of 23880 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.   

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24350--24385 with a stop loss of 24450 or can sell if it moves below 24074 with a stop loss of 24190 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com