A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-29.8.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25030.80--High-25129.60—Low---24964.64---Close-25052.35 on 28.8.2024.

Support:25030.95/24999.75/24956.40/24854.80/24638.80/24595.20/24461.05/24419.75/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:25078.30/25129.60/25152/25337/25375/25473/25494/25551/25671/25868/25967/26118/26263.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process it hit a new all-time high of 25129.60 and finally ended the day with a gain of 34.60 points. Although it made a new high today but could not close above its previous all-time high of 25078.30, please note that for the continuation of the up move it has to sustain above 25078.30 on the closing basis, else it may correct for a while. Furthermore it has been rising straight for the last 10 days and this makes it highly vulnerable for a correction, so at this juncture correction looks inevitable and can happen anytime soon, so be watchful and alert. The trend is up.

The technical setup is very good, it is above all its short- medium and long term moving averages and few important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, which is an extremely good sign for the continuation of the up move, and if it manages to hold the range of 24886.54---24854.80---24841.38---24837.93(very important range, break below this range will be an alert sign for going down) the up move is likely to continue, but even if it breaks this range but hold the range of-24872---24798---24744---24656---24571( figure will change daily)  on the closing basis then the chances of resuming the up move will be alive.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement every other day with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart little while ago and now again it is in the overbought territory, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down again but after this up move is over. So be watchful till the indicators turn positive on the weekly and monthly chart.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24886.54---24854.80---24841.38---24837.93----24798----24799----24744---24656----24626-----24571-----24486------24346---24182.24---24173.27----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) break below the range of 24873.57---24854.80---24841.38----24794.76 will be an alert point for going down and thereafter break below each point will weaken it, but break and sustained close below of 24571 may trigger fresh fall, break and close below the range of 24221.44---24187.39----24099.70-----24074.20 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below the range of 23992.70---23985.80----23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this range then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is out of all corrective mode therefore it is buying on decline market now in general, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is out of corrective mode therefore sell trade could be a slightly risky affair therefore one should be extra alert in the short trade.

NOTE:-IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 24886.54----- 24854.80-----24841.38---24837.93 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE DAILY), THEN THE UP MOVE IS LIKELY TO EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND. SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM BIAS IS ALSO UP.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart on the daily chart.

4. Four out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 24872---24798----24744----24656----24650----24571(figure will change every day), if it sustains above it then it is a strong sign for the continuation of the up-move.

6. It is well above its important pullback threshold point of 24173.27 & 24182.24(figure may change).  Please note that if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to continue.

7. The price action was positive today.

8. It is out of all correction modes and the important correction threshold points are 24886.54----24854.80-----24841.38---24837.93----24221.44 & 24187.39 (figure may change) close below the threshold points is a weak sign.

9. It is in the new zone.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Three out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25000----24950 with a stop loss of 24880 for possible intraday gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25160--25180 with a stop loss of 25230 or can sell if it moves below 24870 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24960 or if it does not move above 25130 in first one and half hour of trade the sell near it with a stop loss of 25180.It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com