CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50666.65--High—50772.45--Low—50333.35---Close—50685.55
on 21.8.2024.
Support:50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50830.70/51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves mostly in the negative territory during the day and finally ended the day
with a loss of 117.60
points. The stipulated time for filling the gap of 5.8.2024 has ended on 12.8.2024
but it will surely fill the gap one day
(gap figure is -51087.85), which please keep in mind. It is already into deep correction
mode for its recent rise and also into correction for the earlier rise; furthermore, it has fallen below few of its short-term
moving averages on the daily chart and few on the weekly chart and also below
few medium-term moving averages on the daily chart, some important technical
indicators are negative on the weekly & monthly chart, and most importantly
the volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is also present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some
extent, therefore it seems that it may go down further may be after some time
with in- between relief rallies. All indication together is pointing that it
could head down again but after this up move is over.
The technical setup has improved a bit but still weak, the
good point is that it is still holding onto its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(it did break this point
intraday but bounced back) and still above most of its short-term moving
averages on the daily chart, it still has higher top & bottom on the line
chart, and almost all the important
technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart, indicates positive
outlook as of now for the continuation of the up move. Therefore please note
that if it could manage to hold the range of 50529---50497---50327 & 50289(some figure may change) on the
closing basis it can extend the up move and
finally if it moves above 50741---51554
& 51639.66(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it can get into good up momentum
track again.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 50741---50997----51070---51314----51506-----51554----51639.66----51706----51803----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it
moves above 50741 and sustain on the
closing basis then it will gain further strength, if it moves above 51554 & 51639.66 and sustain on
the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again and
thereafter crossing each point will strengthen the up move and finally if it
moves above 52618 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest
its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it also and hit a new
high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 50681----50529---50324---50289—50233----49717.78----49654----49530----49546----49495------49169---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, if it holds the range of 50529---50497---50327 & 50289(some
figure may change) on the closing basis then the chance of up move will be
alive, else it will trigger fresh fall and thereafter break below each point
will weaken the setup further. Please
note that the range of 49654---49546----49495-----49169 is a very strong bounce
back support range, but sustained break and close below 49654 will trigger
fresh fall, break and sustained close below 49546 will threaten the long term uptrend and
finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25
&48203.45
will trigger fresh fall again and that could be sharp in the intensity and then
the correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained
close below 47533.83 can drag
it down to 46077 or lower.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 50529---50497---50327
& 50289 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN
THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT IT IS IN
CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49546 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Six out of seven indicators are positive now, pointing that it could extend
the up move and indicate that it could head to 51600
levels.
4. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5. It still
has made higher top & bottom on the line after a long time & higher top
on the bar chart.
6. It is
above most of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 50741---50700----50507----50497----50406---50327(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it
is below almost all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53 & 50702.16 (figure may change), the other correction threshold points are 49878.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. One out
of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
5 The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 50529----50355 with a stop loss of 50100 or if it moves above 50795 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 50650 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair
but can be tried near critical support
points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51200---51300 with
a stop loss of 51450 or can sell if it moves below 50330 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 50550 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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