A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-20.8.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24636.35--High-24638.80—Low---24522.95---Close-24572.65 on 19.8.2024.

Support:24461.05/24419.75/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance24595.20/24638.80/24686.80/ 24854.80/24956.40/24999.75/25078.30/25152/25337/25494/25551/26118.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a small gain of 31.50 points. The stipulated time for filling the gap of 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 has ended but it will surely fill the gap one day (gap figure is 24686.85 & 24956.40), which please keep in mind. It is still into the corrective mode, almost all-important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, furthermore it is having see-saw movement every other day with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it seems that it can move in a range or can move up for some time and then may go down further with in-between short relief rallies. Therefore, all together it is still not out of woods yet and pointing that the down move is likely to be resumed after some time. It is in a balanced mode with an upward bias as of now.

The technical setup has improved as it is well above its pullback threshold points of 24173.27 & 24182.24 and above all its short- and medium-term moving averages which is an extremely good sign for the continuation of the up move, and if it manages to hold the range of 24522---24479---24389---24257----24182.24 &24173.27 (some figure may change daily) on the closing basis then the up move is likely to extend.

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 24626-----24799----24841.38----24854.80(some figure may change, for in between resistance points see the resistance table on the up side) it may correct at any of these points but close above each point will strengthen it and if it moves above 24854.80 and sustain on the closing basis, then it could retest its all-time high of 25078.30 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 24522---24486---24479-----24389----24346---24257----24182.24---24173.27---24135----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) break below each point will weaken it, but break and close below of 24389 may trigger fresh fall and break and close below the range of 24182.24---24173.27---24163----24099.70-----24074.20 may accelerate the fall. Please note that sustained close below 24182.24 & 24173.27 would make the down move more painful price-wise & time-wise both.

Since it is into correction mode therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode therefore buy trade could be a slightly risky affair therefore one should be extra alert in the long trade.

NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 24522----24477---24369---24271----24182.24 &24173.27(FIGURE MAY CHANGE DAILY), THEN THE UP MOVE IS LIKELY TO EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart in last few days’ movement.

4. One out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive, indicating slightly oversold condition. So, it may bounce back at times before resuming the down move again.

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 24479----24415----24389----24328---24257----24163(figure will change every day), if it sustains above it then it is a strong sign for the continuation of the up-move.

6. It is well above its important pullback threshold point of 24173.27 & 24182.24(figure may change).  Please note that if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to continue.

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Six out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. It is into deep correction mode now as it is below almost all its correction threshold point of 24873.57----24841.33----24670.42---24636.50 & (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 24511.57---24462.96 & 24182.24 (figure may change) sustained close below the threshold points is a weak sign.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 24564  for some time with a stop loss of 24490 or can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 24390----24300 with a stop loss of 24160 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains. 

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24690--24750 with a stop loss of 24820. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com