CNX-NIFTY
Open-21990.95—High—22131.30—Low—21950.30--Close-22055.20
on 10.5.2024.
Support:21883/21875/21860/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.45/21137.20.
Resistance:22126.80/22224.35/22297/22305.25/22348.05/22526.60/22554.68/22568.40/22678.85/22730/22775.70/22783.35/22794.70.
It opened on a positive
note and then had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with
a gain of 97.70 points. As expected after 5 days of
fall it bounced back for a relief rally but it is still below its key points and
pullback threshold point of 22136, so this up is likely to fizzle out if
it does not bounce back above it and some other key points as mentioned below in
a day or two and sustain on the closing basis, if it sustains above this mark then
the up move can extend, else down move will continue.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in the long term uptrend now. But sustained break
below 21585(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term
uptrend.
2. The short range for it now is between 22794.70---22305.25(it
is below this range now) and the long range is between 22794.70----21777.65.
3. It is well above its critical points of 21801.45---21777.65---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
4. Moving down the
possible good bounce back support point could be at 22018---21981---21860----21777.65----21710.20,
but sustained break below 21981 can pull it down to 21777.65 & 21710.20
levels and finally sustained break below these points could be a warning sign and
can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the
on-going correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may
please be noted. So 21777.65 & 21710.20 is a very strong and may be the last
bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark points.
So be watchful.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is into correction mode now.
2. It is well below its key point of 22126.80
and the up momentum threshold point of 22526.60.
3. It is below all its short term moving averages on
the daily chart and some below the weekly chart also and the important range of
averages is between 22386---22369---22348---22335 (figures will
change every day), sustained close above this range may provide good
strength and an impetus to move up.
4. It is below some of its medium term moving averages
on the daily chart.
5. It is below its pullback threshold point of 22136(figure
may change), if it closes above it and sustains then it will give a ray of
hope for a meaningful up move.
6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line and bar
chart.
7. Technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly
and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to much lower levels in
coming days/weeks and months.
8. The price action has been more or less consistently
weak for the last few days.
OVERALL VIEW:--The overall technical setup is weak as of now;
but it had a relief rally today but it is less likely to sustain as of now, therefore
further fall looks inevitable in coming days. Since it is in correction mode
therefore it is sell on the rise market now or sell on the price breakdown. So
for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 22136
at least and sustain or till visible sign of correction completion emerges
on the down side. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline at
important support points or range for pullback gains. The long term trend is
up, but the short term bias is hugely negative as of now.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Aggressive traders can try long trade on
decline near 21965 if it hold it for some time with a stop loss of 21920
or on the sharp decline near or within
the range of 21780-----21710 with a stop loss of 21670.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or
within the range of 22170--- 22200 with a stop loss of 22240 or can
sell if it moves below 21920 with a stop loss of 21990. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
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